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WTPN21 PHNC 260830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 260821ZJUL04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N4 110.9W1 TO 13.5N9
116.9W7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MET
SAT IMAGERY AT 260530Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.1N4 111.4W7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR
270600Z5.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. A 260640Z8 TRMM PASS SHOWS
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONVERGING INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270830Z0.//
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