Dangeous August Looming?

[EDR1222]

I am not a professional meterologist, but I was reading one of Forecast discussions out of the National Weather Service in Melbourne a couple of days ago that was talking about a strong Bermuda High beginning to take control of the western atlantic by the end of July. ( this upcoming weekend). Also I read an article from a Tallahasse newspaper that involved a meeting with the governor on hurricane preparedness. An expert in attendance said there was a greater danger of hurricanes effecting the east coast, especially Florida this year because of high pressure that looks to begin elbowing all the way into Florida.

Does anyone know anything about this or see any evidence of this scenario setting up as we head into the active part of hurricane seasons?

Thanks everyone.

Ed

[USAwx1]

I am not a professional meterologist, but I was reading one of Forecast discussions out of the National Weather Service in Melbourne a couple of days ago that was talking about a strong Bermuda High beginning to take control of the western Atlantic by the end of July. ( this upcoming weekend). Also I read an article from a Tallahasse newspaper that involved a meeting with the governor on hurricane preparedness. An expert in attendance said there was a greater danger of hurricanes effecting the east coast, especially Florida this year because of high pressure that looks to begin elbowing all the way into Florida.

Does anyone know anything about this or see any evidence of this scenario setting up as we head into the active part of hurricane seasons?

Thanks everyone.

Ed

Your correct about the ridge, Ed. I think your on the right track and I'm equally concerned.

If we look at the changes in the NW Atlantic SSTA, where the cold water previously in place there has now shifted EWD into the Central Atlantic, and warm water replaced it. That warm water is a ridge building signal and the data is now beginning show the formation of the Western Atlantic Ridge.

The Next MJO wet cycle will likely coincide with a period leading up to the climatological peak of the season (around SEP 10) in late AUG. If we can get all three of those to line up (the WATL ridge, MJO wet phase and favorable CLIMO) things could get VERY dicey.

I suspect when the season gets underway, It will do so with a bang.

[hurricanetrack]

That's awesome- if not a little un-nerving. If that's a word.

:-)

[USAwx1]

[EDR1222]

Here is a copy of the article that I read in the newspaper:

Florida may see a major storm

Meteorologist says hurricane overdue

By Bill Cotterell

DEMOCRAT POLITICAL EDITOR


State disaster-preparedness officials told Gov. Jeb Bush on Wednesday that Florida is overdue for a really bad hurricane - and conditions in the warm Atlantic Ocean are just right for a big blow to build up in the second half of this so-far tranquil hurricane season.

"We have a hurricane amnesia problem in our state," Bush said as he left the Emergency Operations Center after an hour-long briefing with his department heads and other top state officers. "The one essential fact that comes out of a briefing like that is that each individual Floridian needs to have a hurricane-preparedness plan."

Meteorologist Ben Nelson said the National Hurricane Center in Miami has predicted 12 to 15 storms, with six to eight developing into hurricanes and two to four of the hurricanes being major ones. Since the May-November season started, there have been no big storms, but Nelson said the second half of the season is always more dangerous.

"We are now in a period of greater activity, with above-average sea-surface temperatures," Nelson said.

Nelson said various forecasts project a 52-percent chance of a hurricane hitting the Atlantic coast and a 40-percent chance of one angling around into the Gulf of Mexico. He said the current spate of wildfires in the southern third of the state is evidence of "a Bermuda high that's nosing into South Florida," forming a wall of atmospheric pressure that will keep hurricanes from curving northeast, away from the state.

"We all know that we are overdue for a major hurricane," he added.

Nelson said the last big storm to hit Florida was Hurricane Irene in October 1999. The last time the state went so long without a major storm was from 1980 to 1984, he said.

Craig Fugate, director of the Division of Emergency Management, said federal, state, county and city officials have worked through disaster drills and made plans for emergency shelters, evacuation procedures and recovery from a storm. Fugate said "we may not really get five days" to prepare for a storm because many systems stay small or weak when they cross the mid-Atlantic, then blow up into major hurricanes when they are near Andros Island.

"The pre-season will soon be over," Fugate said. "The peak of the season will be in September."

Bush said it is essential for Floridians to make their own disaster plans, with adequate supplies on hand and evacuation routes laid out before the panic that always precedes a big storm. The state has set up a Web site, http://www.floridadisaster.org, with information on planning, locations of shelters and other advice on other storm preparations.


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[Anonymous]

OK---I hate to beat a dead horse here but it is still my opinion that you CAN NOT be overdue for a hurricane----its all in the way the weather pattern is at the time... Sure, the weather pattern this year may signal an increased chance for FLA but that article just had to throw in the fact that Fla hasnt been hit since 1999 and we are due....weather looks forward, not at history....FWIW--I agree that if patterns persist, we may get hit but dont put history into it--it dont matter and the public dont need to have it in their head that because we havent been hit in years that we are overdue! It is so lame---one thing going for my area is the fact that a typhoon is turning west along 30N----hmmm what if that happenned in the atlantic--could it be?? DORA???? Teleconnections...could this be a sign of things to come in the Atlantic this year???