Corpus Disc - Warm Core Transition

[KatDaddy]

From the Corpus Christi Disc:

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THRU FRIDAY)...MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON
THE DIRECTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE SOUTHERN MOST TRACK AND WOULD INDICATE A
FAIRLY WET FORECAST TUE-WED...BUT THE ECMWF USUALLY SHOWS A SOUTHERN
BIAS WITH TUTT LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES. THE ETA/UKMET ARE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH INDICATING THE UPPER LOW MOVING NW INTO SE
TX AND LA ON TUESDAY. FINALLY THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL LOW CENTER ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND MOVING THIS FEATURE NORTH INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE DEEP MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AND A
SUBSIDENT PATTERN OVER THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOOKING AT THE
SATELLITE NOW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A CONVERSION TO A
WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM BY MONDAY DUE TO THE CURRENT AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION BUBBLING UP AND WEAK UPPER FLOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. WILL SIDE WITH A BLEND OF THE
ETA/UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN AND FORECAST ESSENTIALLY DRY WEATHER
SUN-TUE.

[vbhoutex]

I'M GOING TO BE REALLY UPSET IF THE SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN GETS GOING WHILE I AM AWAY FROM THE COMPUTER ALL WEEKEND!!! HOLD IT OFF WILL YA?

[Guest]

I'M GOING TO BE REALLY UPSET IF THE SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN GETS GOING WHILE I AM AWAY FROM THE COMPUTER ALL WEEKEND!!! HOLD IT OFF WILL YA?

LOL. Not having any luck huh David?

[PTrackerLA]

I hope our evening tv met changes the tune that the morning guy had who said "this area of cloudiness is associated with upper level low which means no tropical development we don't have to worry about it." I think there is a DEFINATE possibility of something cranking up in the gulf this weekend and they need to start letting the public know. At least corpus christi is paying attention .

As for track it's totally up in the air right now IMO and if it even develops we won't really know until the models can initialize correctly.

[PTrackerLA]

I'M GOING TO BE REALLY UPSET IF THE SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN GETS GOING WHILE I AM AWAY FROM THE COMPUTER ALL WEEKEND!!! HOLD IT OFF WILL YA?

I know the feeling, I'm glad I have a relaxing weekend planned because the excitement is already building .

[Matthew5]

I think it is is developing a mid level maybe a LLCC, but it is starting to cross over land. I think once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico this will be a tropical system.

[PTrackerLA]

Just checked the vis. loop. Even though it's crossing the Yucatan right now there is definately at least a mid-level circulation center forming right now and at the rate it's heading it will be in the gulf by tomorrow afternoon.

[Anonymous]

There's certainly an opportunity for a surface low to develop under this. But the upper low won't fade right away when that happens...and we won't see a true tropical system until it does. Now the global models are starting to agree that the low aloft will weakn some let a new surface low take over once the thing is in the central Gulf. However, it's just about at that time when the progged shortwave trough will dig into the northern Gulf...and in turn induce strong south-southeasterly shear in the area. There may be a very small window of opportunity for organization in between the time when it loses a lot of the upper cyclonic flow and starts feeling southerly shear from the shortwave...but that doesnt change the fact that it'll have to fight incoming shear right afterwards. Just don't see the potential in this, tropical development wise.

[Yankeegirl]

Our local mets havent even mentioned it!! What are they going to do, surprise us?? I think if it is going to be any type of threat that something at least needs to be mentioned... It is hurricane season now, and people need to get their supplies.. Cant wait till last minute for this type of thing, even if it is just a rain maker...

[jabber]

Hey can someone send me a link for windshear maps... Somehow I seem to have lost my favorites

[ColdFront77]

Jabber, click "Tropical Weather" on the menu above... although the links on the site under "Shear/Winds" haven't been working.

[MGC]

I doubt the cold core translates into a warm core system. I could be wrong but I can't recall this type of cyclogenisis in the GOM in June. Most likely scenario would be the UL to move away and a weak surface low form in the central GOM and move NE ahead of approaching trough.....MGC

[Aquawind]

Funky transition concept..I am sure it has happened before..Bring on the Rain!


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-1.html