GOM Issue getting VERY interesting.

[Rainband]

115
fxus62 ktbw 111705
afdtbw


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
105 PM EDT Friday Jun 11 2004


Short term (tonight-sun)...
models continue to show a deep layer ridge axis generally over the
central forecast area through the period. Deep layer moisture also remains
sufficient enough for at least climatology probability of precipitation (~40%)...but given trends
past few days...would prefer to go 40-50% coastal areas...and 50-
60% interior counties. Model probability of precipitation a little lower...especially for
Sat...probably due to a gradual increase in upper heights as upper
ridge tries to build over the area. However...model probability of precipitation increase
again for sun...even-though the synoptic pattern looks very similar
to Sat. Thus...will go similar probability of precipitation both Sat and sun...with highest
probability of precipitation (50-60%) interior. Given west-southwest low level flow...will continue to
see late night and morning showers/thunderstorms over the Gulf waters...
coming onshore by middle/late morning from tpa Bay northward.


Long term (sun ngt-fri)...GFS at 12 once again opts to bring weak
tropical like system out of the Caribbean and up towards the
Panhandle. This leads to winds being way to strong and precipitation
fields over done to say the least. Most likely scenario at this
point would be for this mostly middle-upper level system to continue
slowly northwest into central Gulf then possibly northward as
energy lifts/shears out along approaching middle-latitude trough by
Monday. The 06z GFS run looked better over-all and have leaned in
that direction.


After some general southerly low-level flow on Monday and Tuesday...
will depict ridging again building in from the east across central
Florida on Wednesday. This ridge should get suppressed southward by
Thursday and Friday as whatever energy remains lifts out well to
north...probably well north and west of where the 12z GFS depicts.




&&


Marine...no big changes or concerns at this time. Will continue to
monitor model solutions regarding possible low center moving
northward into the central Gulf by early next week. For now...have
opted to pretty much ignore this feature given uncertainty.


&&


Fire weather...no highlights.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 075 090 077 091 / 20 40 20 40
fmy 074 091 074 091 / 40 50 40 40
gif 073 092 074 093 / 40 50 40 50
srq 074 088 074 089 / 20 40 20 40
bkv 071 090 071 092 / 30 40 30 40


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...none.


&&


$$


Short term...Morales
long term...jillson

[Guest]

What EXACTLY are you saying Tom?

Are you saying the CURRENT wind direction will take it to Central Florida?

Please elaborate.

I have elaborated already, aside from ongoing answers and comments I will give. I stated my views and seem to be getting negative feedback like expected. If I'm not, I apologize.

In general I am saying that the CURRENT steering flow would take it TOWARD central Florida. That doesn't make sense? A southwest flow from the northwest Caribbean Sea/southeastern Gulf of Mexico is right into central Florida.

Your ok Tom and i do get what your saying However your seeing the upper level winds (Blowing the cloud tops off towards FL) which is what isnt gonna direct this system. For that you have to look below those winds at the mid levels. These systems are breeded at the lower leavels which is why they follow the path of the lower level winds and not upper levels which if anything normally tears them apart when a tropical system interacts with upper level winds going in another direction then the system itself hench the term shear. Like Steve said i hope you get some rain from this as well.


Hope this helps some.

[ColdFront77]

I understand the reasoning for the movement of weather systems. The high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico isn't just at the surface, it is in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, too.

As this high moves eastward out of the Gulf and the cold front moves down the mid-Atlantic coast, it is expected to (no surprise) stall across southeast Georgia on Monday.

[Guest]

I understand the reasoning for the movement of weather systems. The high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico isn't just at the surface, it is in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, too.

As this high moves eastward out of the Gulf and the cold front moves down the mid-Atlantic coast, it is expected to (no surprise) stall across southeast Georgia on Monday.

Point is this system has very little to 0 chance of going to central FL. May possible get some outer bands from the east side of the system but that will be about it. This one is destined for the northern gulf coast from LA over to the FL panhandle. Somewhere inbetween there is where it will go IMO.

[Rainband]

The GFS says it will come here













SO I KNOW BETTER!!!!!!! I say LA to the panhandle of Florida

[ColdFront77]

Point is this system has very little to 0 chance of going to central FL. May possible get some outer bands from the east side of the system but that will be about it. This one is destined for the northern gulf coast from LA over to the FL panhandle. Somewhere inbetween there is where it will go IMO.

I can't disagree. Outer bands are still outer bands.

I have these opinions that mean nothing to the current forecast. Oh well... It is very annoying having these feelings, but I am adding to what I am observing. Oh well. * SIGH *

[Steve]

Don't sweat it man. In this particular case, the periphery/nose of the SW Atlantic High is likely to be the steering mechanism for whatever we end up with (unless something stronger and unanticipated forms, then we could be looking at a S or SC Texas (off the coast) type system). The nose of the high, though it will retreat, will give the typical parabolic NW, NNW, N, NNE, NE type movement as the lower pressure moves off the coast of the Yucatan into the Southern Gulf.

But hey, it's all speculation now. I'm going with the worst weather east of me, and hey, you're east of me, so you're just as likely to see some inclement (= fun) weather.

Steve

[Steve]

Scratch that. It's raining cats and dogs out of the blue. The streak of 1 day without rain has ended. Lotsa [tm] street flooding in the Big Difficult.

TPS

[zoeyann]

steve, sent some of that rain to the coast line i'm suffering down here in this heat.

[Anonymous]

AWESOME post.

Just my opinion...but I don't see much potential at all beyond a rainmaker for the south...


IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 11 June 2004 - 11:10 AM EDT

The most prominent disturbance in the Atlantic Basin today is the mid to upper level low in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Yesterday, the interaction between this upper low and a passing tropical wave generated deep convection, but today the wave has moved well on out of the area and into the eastern Pacific. The upper low has not moved, and the convection that is still present in the northwest Caribbean Sea is thus completely associated with this upper low. Tropical cyclone development cannot occur in this type of situation, as a low pressure needs to be present at the surface and not at the higher altitudes of the troposphere.

The upper low is currently moving slowly northwestward, a track that will take it across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico in the next 48 hours. No development will occur in this time frame due to the reason we mentioned above and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the low is in the central Gulf of Mexico, it does not look like the potential for development will be that high. First of all, even if a surface low does form underneath as the GFS and CMC show, the upper low will still be above it. This will keep any surface low pressure that develops from becoming purely tropical. Secondly, the system will be moving rather quickly to the north along the western prehiphery of the subtropical ridge, giving it only a limited amount of time to strengthen before it comes ashore between New Orleans and Pensacola in about 96 hours. To add to the problems, a shortwave trough is progged to dip through the southern states towards the second half of the forecast period. This will quickly induce strong southerly shear over the system as it closes in on the coast.

It should be noted that although Allison in 2001 and Bill in 2003 formed in part from an upper low similar to this one, the conditions in this case are not the same as with those 2 storms. For Bill, the upper low that was present when it initially formed quickly faded and gave way to an upper high, which allowed Bill to intensify and transform into a purely tropical system. For both of the storms, conditions were conducive as they approached the coast, which allowed Allison to form and Bill to further intensify. In this system's case, the upper low should stay above any surface low that might form, and the shortwave trough will prevent any last minute intensification or cause weakening before it reaches the coast.

Therefore, the window of opportunity for this to develop is very small, practically non-existent. No development is expected, though it should still spread heavy rains over portions of the south.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is being sheared apart by strong westerly winds. Another tropical wave has just exited the coast of Africa with moderate convection. Dry subsidence due to the seasonably southward positioned Azores High and marginally cool ocean temperatures will prevent this or any other waves at this time of the year from developing.

ah, its alright I guess hehehe j/k.. Great outlook as always from the iwic


P.S. Look in this months up coming newsletter for more GREAT things from the IWIC!!!

LOL!!! Thanks Chad and USWx for the warm comments! For those of you who may be new to IWIC, I would like to mention that our outlooks and discussions are posted usually 2-3 times a day, so we don't wait for things to get going. You can find our stuff under the forecast center category of our menu.

[Josephine96]

Are we predicting landfalls already? lol.. I say.. anywhere from Mobile to possibly as far south as Cedar Key