TUTT Building Downward to Below 700MB

[KatDaddy]

TUTT Building Downward to Below 700MB

From Key West AFD

THE KEY WEST MORNING SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLY
STRATIFIED AIR MASS. HOWEVER...CAPE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN IT
WAS 24 HOURS AGO THANKS TO SOME MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARMING. AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS RUNS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THEN
SOUTHWEST TO A TUTT CELL OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN. THIS TUTT CELL
HAS BUILT DOWNWARD TO BELOW 700MB DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AS
EVIDENCED BY 1200 UTC RAWINSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT MERIDA...MEXICO AND
BELIZE CITY...BELIZE. CONVECTION HAS FLOURISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN..

[vbhoutex]

Now it is starting to get interesting! However latest sat pics still don't reveal a LLCC of any type, at least not that I've seen. As usual, we wait and we watch.

[PTrackerLA]

This could be an upper level low ---> low level circulation transitioner. We'll have to wait and see but this certainly has not gone "poof" like some predicted there is lots of convection out there.

[caneman]

Looks like a West wind down there in Belize. What do you make of it?
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html

[Anonymous]

We could see a weak surface low form over the next couple days, but the strong low in the upper levels isn't going anywhere either. As long as there's cyclonic flow in the upper levels, it's not a purely tropical system. There is some evidence the upper low will fade away by Day 3, but by this time the system will already be moving towards the southern states and encountering strong shear from a shortwave trough.

[caneman]

Thanks Rob

[Aquawind]

Interesting catch KatDaddy..

I like the New website Rob.. You didn't screw it up...lol Good Job.

[Dean4Storms]

We could see a weak surface low form over the next couple days, but the strong low in the upper levels isn't going anywhere either. As long as there's cyclonic flow in the upper levels, it's not a purely tropical system. There is some evidence the upper low will fade away by Day 3, but by this time the system will already be moving towards the southern states and encountering strong shear from a shortwave trough.

There is a potential for this to try and strengthen just before landfall, but how much it has at that point and can gain is questionable. I wouldn't hook on not much develoment forecasts at this point. It does have some potential.

[Rainband]

Rain event most likely

[Anonymous]

Interesting catch KatDaddy..

I like the New website Rob.. You didn't screw it up...lol Good Job.

Thanks, Aquawind. Though as far as our new design goes, Jason deserves the most credit...he's worked more on the redesigning than I have this past few months.

[Matthew5]

I think what ever it is has made landfall, but should be heading into the gulf on a track kind of like Bills! This is the normal part of the year for Gulf development.