Caribbean "Blob" expanding WNW........

[dixiebreeze]

at a pretty good clip, it appears. I think this area of interest bears close scrutiny:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[abajan]

That's the general region to watch this early in the season.

[boca]

looks stationary,but I wishcast it right up Florida's spine

[Josephine96]

Hope something develops..

[Matthew5]

The last few visible shots shown great curving to the cloud mass. With possible "MLC"? The shear by cimass is weaking with time with most of it to the north of the system.

[vbhoutex]

It appears stationary to me with warming cloud tops and shear still working on it. However this is the area we watch this time of year and if this it persists and does move wnw or nw it may be the one we need to be watching here in TX for mid week. Our local discussions are mentioning strong Allison-like tropical moisture with pops at 2+" per hour for mid week. They aren't saying it will stall like Allison but that we may have rain rates as strong as Allison's which for a long time were over 2"/hr in many areas. We actually saw rain rates in the 6"/hr range from Allison.

[Amanzi]

It appears stationary to me with warming cloud tops and shear still working on it. However this is the area we watch this time of year and if this it persists and does move wnw or nw it may be the one we need to be watching here in TX for mid week. Our local discussions are mentioning strong Allison-like tropical moisture with pops at 2+" per hour for mid week. They aren't saying it will stall like Allison but that we may have rain rates as strong as Allison's which for a long time were over 2"/hr in many areas. We actually saw rain rates in the 6"/hr range from Allison.

I hope it does not end up to be another Allison type situation David!!!

[FWBHurricane]

This storm has a good potential for development since the environment in the Caribbean has gotten better in the past few days. It would be neat to see what happens if this storm crosses the Yucatan Peninsula ( maybe something like Opal did? Form into a Depression over land? ) or totally dissipate? Of course even if it withstands the Yucatan Peninsual, i dont think it will survive the GOM. The environemnt there is hectic and windshear still dominates the whole southwestern region ( Moslty the BOC ). Maybe it will emerge a few miles away from the BOC and develop in the warm waters of the central GOM. To early to tell but all I know is that its got a good chance right now.