New to Board and 2004 Tropical Outlook

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Hello everyone! This is my first time at storm2k and I hope to be able to have great conversations with everyone! For reference, I am also at weather.com, weatherzone.com.au, and Hurricane City's message boards. Here's my tropical weather outlook for 2004! (Contains outlooks for Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific.):

05262004


NOTE: This FORECAST/OUTLOOK will REPLACE the PRELIMINARY GUESSTIMATE that was issued in December that is as follows:
ATLC: 16-13-06-03 (31% 5)
EPAC: 15-13-07-03 (24% 5)
CPAC: NO PG.

I. NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN (North of 0 deg lat, West of 20 deg W lon, East of 100 W deg lon including the ATLANTIC OCEAN, GULF OF MEXICO, and CARIBBEAN SEA.)

A. INTRODUCTION

Since December, several factors have improved for tropical cyclones to form in the Atlantic Basin. These factors include the ENSO, QBO, and NAO. In sections I.B through I.F, we will discuss each factor, whether it is positive or negative, and impacts that they will have on tropical cyclones.

B. EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

The Southern Oscillation has been progressively moving toward a positive state (La Niña) since last year if you look at the general year-to-year trends. However, it has not been very steady. In this month, it has generally held its own with an SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) Value near zero: sometimes positive, sometimes negative. Prior to this month there has been steady fluctuations between negative, neutral, and positive, but the general trend has been positive.

Forecast: Neutral-Positive Southern Oscillation
Result: POSITIVE (for the formation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones)

C. QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO)

The QBO is a zone of stratospheric, fast moving winds that tend to shift directions (E or W) approximately every 1.5 years (but not exactly). In this oscillation, the Westerly phase is positive for the formation of Atlantic Hurricanes, tending to slow them down and have more time to organize, while the Easterly phase tends to have tropical cyclones speed westerly across the tropics above 20 mph, causing them to "outrun" their low-level circulation centers (LLCC) and weakening them. Since the end of last year, the QBO has been in a WESTERLY phase, and is expected to be so for the remainder of the year.

Forecast: Westerly through November.
Result: POSITIVE

D. NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)

The NAO is an oscillation that, basically, can determine the overall pressure value in the Atlantic Basin, and is often quite variable. It could mean that the general pressure is high (positive NAO), which may limit the formation of many tropical cyclones but due to pressure gradients, increase their strengths..., or low (negative NAO), which may increase the formation of tropical cyclones but with a weaker pressure gradient, they shouldn't get too strong...and allow them to move northwards. This year, the NAO is expected to be positive overall with some negative fluctuations. This could allow more tropical cyclones to get stronger than average and have them move more westerly.

Forecast: Positive NAO ~82.5%/Negative NAO ~17.5%
Result: POSITIVE

E. ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION (ATC)

The ATC is a long-range multidecadal pattern that changes once approximately ever 25-40 years. In the negative (weaker) state years, TCs tend to be few in numbers, but in positive (stronger) state years, TCs tend to be numerous and more tropical in nature. 1995 began a new positive ATC cycle, which should continue this year.

Forecast: Positive ATC
Result: POSITIVE

F. MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO)

The Madden-Julian Oscillation can be divided into two states: the wet phase and the dry phase. In the wet phase, there is a large increase in tropical cyclone formation, and ~90% of all tropical cyclones form in wet MJOs. In dry MJOs, wind shear tends to increase, and TC formation dies down, but not completely. These phases last for approximately 3 weeks each, but some can be longer/shorter. It is quite difficult to time the MJOs, whether they will be located during peak times, etc. Also, it is difficult to forecast their strengths and lengths. However, as we get into the season and notice the first waves of the MJO, it will be much easier to predict the timing and strengths of the phases. My July 31 revampment will reflect this as well with detailed phase timing forecasts. For right now, June appears as if it will encounter a weak wet MJO around 07 June, transiting to a strong dry MJO around the 29. In July, the dry phase should continue until about the 14, with a moderately weak wet phase going through the end of the month.

No Results, see last 2 sentences for forecast.

G. NUMERICAL OUTLOOK

With the following information above, I expect the 2004 Hurricane Season to have:

18 Tropical Depressions
15 Named Storms
08 Hurricanes
04 Major Hurricanes
39% Chance of Having 1 Major Become a Category 5.

NOTE!: I generally will NOT go above 15 Named Storms in a June 01st forecast, however, if extreme conditions warrant, I may be forced to in the July 31st revampment.

H. U.S. COASTAL REGION LANDFALL PROBABILITIES

In this section, I will give the percent chance of 100 that a tropical storm, hurricane, or major hurricane will strike somewhere in that zone this year.

80% - 100% Extremely Probable
60% - 79% Probable
40% - 59% Possible
20% - 39% Somewhat Possible
0% - 19% Unlikely

Zone 1: Brownsville, TX to TX/LA Border (Sabine Pass).
Zone 2: TX/LA Border (Sabine Pass) to LA/MS Border (Pearl River).
Zone 3: LA/MS Border (Pearl River) to Suwannee River, FL.
Zone 4: Suwannee River, FL to Cape Sable, FL.
Zone 5: Key West, FL to Key Largo, FL.
Zone 6: Homestead, FL to St. Augustine, FL.
Zone 7: Jacksonville, FL to Savannah, GA.
Zone 8: Savannah, GA to Cape Hatteras, NC.
Zone 9: Cape Hatteras, NC to Rehobeth Beach, DE.
Zone 10: Rehobeth Beach, DE to Newark, NJ.
Zone 11: Newark, NJ to Cape Cod, MA.
Zone 12: Cape Cod, MA to Eastport, ME.

TROPICAL STORM PERCENTAGES
1: 67%
2: 49%
3: 88%
4: 82%
5: 33%
6: 75%
7: 22%
8: 87%
9: 50%
10: 34%
11: 39%
12: 10%

HURRICANE PERCENTAGES
1: 42%
2: 42%
3: 78%
4: 59%
5: 23%
6: 56%
7: 15%
8: 64%
9: 36%
10: 19%
11: 21%
12: 05%

MAJOR HURRICANE PERCENTAGES
1: 22%
2: 30%
3: 52%
4: 40%
5: 12%
6: 38%
7: 09%
8: 35%
9: 12%
10: 08%
11: 10%
12: <01%


II. EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN (North of 0 deg lat, West of 90 W deg lon, East of 140 W deg lon including the PACIFIC OCEAN and GULF OF CALIFORNIA.)

A. INTRODUCTION

Sections I.B, I.C, and I.F still apply to the Eastern Pacific, however, with the adjustments that follow in section II.B. Sections I.D and I.E do not apply.

B. ADJUSTMENTS FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN

ENSO: The ENSO forecast for this year should result in a NEUTRAL affect upon the formation of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones.

QBO: NO CHANGES. POSITIVE EFFECT.

MJO: The Madden Julian Oscillation phases affect the Eastern Pacific before they affect the Atlantic. You may obtain the date of FIRST ENCOUNTER with a phase on the 140 lon by subtracting 4 or 5 from the date of initial encounter in the Atlantic Basin.

C. NUMERICAL OUTLOOK

With the following information above, I expect the 2004 Hurricane Season to have:

15 Tropical Depressions
13 Named Storms
07 Hurricanes
03 Major Hurricanes
19% Chance that a major hurricane will become a Category 5.


III. CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN (North of 0 deg lat, West of 140 W deg lon, East of 180 deg lon including the PACIFIC OCEAN and HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.)

A. INTRODUCTION

Section II.B applies as written for the Central Pacific Basin. One adjustment follows.

B. ADJUSTMENTS FOR CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN

MJO: The Madden Julian Oscillation phases affect the Central Pacific before they affect the Eastern Pacific. You may obtain the date of FIRST ENCOUNTER with a phase on the 180 lon by subtracting 2 from the date of initial encounter in the Eastern Pacific Basin.

C. NUMERICAL OUTLOOK

With the following information above, I expect the 2004 Hurricane Season to have:

FORMING in the Central Pacific:
04 Tropical Depressions
02 Named Storms
00 Hurricanes
00 Major Hurricanes

ENTERING the Central Pacific from either the Eastern or Western Pacific Basins:
02 Tropical Depressions should enter.
02 Named Storms should enter.
01 Hurricane should enter.
38% Chance that the hurricane will be a major hurricane.

[Rainband]

Nice write up. Welcome!!!

[OtherHD]

Hey DH! Good to see you here finally. You know me as hurricanedude at TWC...glad you made it!

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Welcome aboard!!

Greetings from The Cycloman PR. Great forecast, and a very detailed one. I will take some time later tonight to read it completely. I have 14, 8, 4 on my forecast numbers.

Are you the same Doc Hurricane I met so many years ago in GOPBY's message board..?


Cycloman.

[Aquawind]

Welcome to the board!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Thanks all! Cycloman, at one point a couple of years ago, I was posting at GoPBI, however, I did not enjoy it and left.

[Lindaloo]

Hey doc!! Good to see you made your way here!!

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Thanks all! Cycloman, at one point a couple of years ago, I was posting at GoPBI, however, I did not enjoy it and left.

I didn't like it either. Great to have you here! Enjoy!!

[cycloneye]

Welcome aboard.

[vbhoutex]

WELCOME TO STORM2K ADAM!! GREAT OUTLOOK FOR THE 2004 SEASON!! You will find that we will have many very good discussions here during the season. Please join in!!

I grew up in Gulf Breeze during the 50's and 60's and went to school with and played with some Arnold kids. Are you a part of(descended from)that family?

[bevgo]

Whats up Doc? Sorry couldnt resist. Nice initial post. This is a really nice board. I was at GOPBI once also. I gave up on it too. Welcome.

[boca]

I think everyone was once at GOPBI.com at some point.

[Brent]

Great write-up on the forecast!

[Stormsfury]

I remember DoctorHurricane from the TWC boards, and am glad to finally see that you've made your way over here to Storm2k, and a very good discussion, and awesome way to break the ice with your first post ...

SF

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Sorry about the late reply! Been a bit busy, but thanks to everyone for a great welcome and response to my outlook! :-D vb= no, my family moved here in 1982...sorry!