Maxed out with "long overdue"

[tropicstorm]

According to Max Mayfield, the U.S. coastline is "long overdue" for a major hurricane strike. Mayfield has noted that 32 major hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin since 1995 & at least 1/3 of those would have been expected to hit land based on historic averages, but only 3 did.

My contention is that "long overdue" has absolutely no validity for the statistical probability of landfalling hurricanes for any geographical region in any single hurricane season. Should Bermuda be considered "off the hook" this year because the island experienced a major landfalling hurricane last year, the 1st major in several decades? I should think that our most prominent hurricane experts should not confuse their good intentions of public safety concerns with proven climatological studies of statistical probabilities of landfalling hurricanes. "Long overdue" just isn't a valid statistical probability principle, either for predicting coin tosses, roulette spins or hurricane strikes.

[wx247]

Hi, I am no Max Mayfield, but here is my take on this.

No one is EVER out of the woods, however, one must realize that the longer that someplace goes without being hit by a hurricane that is statisically a high probability area, then they truly are "long overdue" for a direct hit.

Long overdue does have to do with statistics. If a hurricane makes landfall in Hulahulahula, FL once every 19 years (on avg) and it has 30 yrs. since Hulahulahula, FL has been hit, it is "long overdue" for another direct hit.

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/hrcnhist.html

Puerto Rico is located at hurricane alley meaning that every season it is at risk of hurricanes but fortunatly we dont get hit every season because many factors play in favor of Puerto Rico in many of the seasons for the island not to see landfalls.So we here never say PR is overdue because of the position we are in the map.It has been 6 years since our last landfall GEORGES but will this season PR will be threatened or we will be lucky once again as in many times in past decades and centuries and be spared.?

[Anonymous]

To me if you live on an island or near a coast it is a threat every year.

[tropicstorm]

"long overdue" for a hurricane is not a quantitative statistical method or scientifically valid predictor of any region's probability of a landfalling event in a given timeline. Rather, climatology studies show the characteristic values of climate variables over a particular region and specified period of time. For Atlantic basin hurricanes and particularly how they might impact the Caribbean and the southeastern U.S. coastal states, seasonal and cyclical factors such as our subtropical Bermuda high, ENSO phases of either an El Nino or La Nina year, ITCZ values, SST values, MJO convection cycles and African monsoons are just some of the scientific data that is analyzed to even begin to "predict" how a particular region might be impacted by hurricane activity in an upcoming season. "Long overdue" simply does not exist within any scientific method of hurricane prediction study and should not be used by experts, even to alert the public to safety concerns prior to the storm season.

[MGC]

Like my professor said when I took statistics years ago, "statistics are for groups not individuals." That being said, being "long overdue" does have some validity in my opinion. Is Miami overdue? Yep, Is New Orleans overdue? Yep. Will they get hit by a major this year? Doubt it, but there is a statistical probability they they will. Yes, the USA has been real lucky in landfalls the past decade. Will this trend continue? Only God knows.......MGC

[wx247]

"long overdue" for a hurricane is not a quantitative statistical method or scientifically valid predictor of any region's probability of a landfalling event in a given timeline. Rather, climatology studies show the characteristic values of climate variables over a particular region and specified period of time. For Atlantic basin hurricanes and particularly how they might impact the Caribbean and the southeastern U.S. coastal states, seasonal and cyclical factors such as our subtropical Bermuda high, ENSO phases of either an El Nino or La Nina year, ITCZ values, SST values, MJO convection cycles and African monsoons are just some of the scientific data that is analyzed to even begin to "predict" how a particular region might be impacted by hurricane activity in an upcoming season. "Long overdue" simply does not exist within any scientific method of hurricane prediction study and should not be used by experts, even to alert the public to safety concerns prior to the storm season.

He is not using it as a forecasting tool, but rather letting people know that it has been a while since certain areas have seen a tropical storm/hurricane and that they should keep their eyes open.

[tropicstorm]

There is absolutely some statistical probability that Miami will get hit with a hurricane this year - no disagreement on that. My only point is this - the fact that Miami was not hit by a hurricane last year, or the year brfore that, or the year before that has nothing whatsoever to do with any statistical probability that it will be struck this year. Rather, climatology factors and weather patterns at the time a hurricane was in close proximity to South Florida would determine a hit. Any "long overdue" period of hurricane inactivity for Miami does not have anything to do with the probability that it will be hit this year, or next year, or the year after that.

[wx247]

There is absolutely some statistical probability that Miami will get hit with a hurricane this year - no disagreement on that. My only point is this - the fact that Miami was not hit by a hurricane last year, or the year brfore that, or the year before that has nothing whatsoever to do with any statistical probability that it will be struck this year. Rather, climatology factors and weather patterns at the time a hurricane was in close proximity to South Florida would determine a hit. Any "long overdue" period of hurricane inactivity for Miami does not have anything to do with the probability that it will be hit this year, or next year, or the year after that.

Respectfully disagree!

By the way, welcome.

[Rainband]

He is not using it as a forecasting tool, but rather letting people know that it has been a while since certain areas have seen a tropical storm/hurricane and that they should keep their eyes open.

I agree Garrett. The fact that the Tampa bay area hasn't been hit since the 20's makes it overdue IMHO I respect the opinions of everyone but I listen most to the experts!!