latest start of Fl rainy season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
latest start of Fl rainy season
The latest start of Fl rainy season is June 3rd according to a local met on the affliate station in West Palm. I think we'll smash that record.
0 likes
-
Aquawind
- Category 5
- Posts: 6714
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
- Location: Salisbury, NC
- Contact:
It's gonna be real late alrighty... 
000
FXUS62 KTBW 251718
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
118 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004
...HOT AND INCREASINGLY STAGNANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...OFF THE SE
FL COAST...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS NORTH FL TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE TX COAST EASTWARD
TO OVER FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD. THIS MAINTAINS WARM CONDITIONS WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
SLOWLY INCREASES IN MOISTURE AS WINDS GENERALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BY.
.LONG TERM...
ONCE AGAIN...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FCST. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL RAISE THE LEVEL OF
DISCOMFORT FOR THE WEEKEND. AS SPRAWLING AND STRONG 500 MB RIDGE
SLOWLY EXPANDS AND SLIDES TO THE ESE...THE SFC-850 RIDGE WILL EASE
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MEAN FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER
(STILL UP TO 6K FEET) TO THE SSW...ALBEIT LIGHT.
THIS WILL CAUSE DWPTS TO RISE A BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND LOWEST VALUES OVER THE EAST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVENTUALLY...DWPTS WILL REACH NORMAL VALUES FOR
THE END OF MAY...NEAR 70 OR ABOVE DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE HEAT INDEX...THE FIRST LEVEL OF DISCOMFORT...TO NEAR
100 BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WELL INLAND.
IN ADDITION...CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY SUGGESTS INCREASING HAZE AND
DECREASING AIR QUALITY AS RIDGE AXIS CENTERS ACROSS THE S 1/3 OF THE
PENINSULA. HAVE ADDED HAZE FOR THE FRI-SUN PERIOD (DAYLIGHT
HOURS)...AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL OZONE ISSUES FOR THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
SITUATION MAY VERY WELL CARRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL WAIT
UNTIL MORE DATA ARRIVE AS GFS BEGINNING TO HINT AT A BREAKDOWN TO
THE RIDGE TOWARD MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH THE BREAKDOWN...STILL NO DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE FOUND IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE PUTTING
RAINY SEASON ON HOLD.
MAY ISSUE AN SPS TO DISCUSS THE DETERIORATING AIR MASS. CERTAINLY...
THE PLACE TO BE WILL BE ON THE GULF BEACHES...WHERE AFTN SEA BREEZE
WILL PUSH POLLUTANTS INLAND AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SOME 5-7 DEGREES
LOWER.
&&
.MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...INTO THE CENTRAL FA WED AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL FOR THU INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE WINDS
WESTERLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OUT HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE INLAND
COUNTIES AND THE INLAND SECTIONS IN THE SOUTH FA. THIS MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WED LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER IFFY DAY FOR A RED FLAG BUT WILL DEFFER TO LATER SHIFTS.
MOISTURE INCREASE ENOUGH THU TO KEEP RH ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SUMTER...POLK...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...DE SOTO
AND INTERIOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 90 72 90 / 00 00 00 00
FMY 68 91 70 92 / 00 00 00 00
GIF 69 94 70 94 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 68 87 70 87 / 00 00 00 00
BKV 62 92 64 92 / 00 00 00 00
&&
$$
SHORT TERM-RKR
LONG TERM-BSG
000
FXUS62 KTBW 251718
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
118 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004
...HOT AND INCREASINGLY STAGNANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...OFF THE SE
FL COAST...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS NORTH FL TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE TX COAST EASTWARD
TO OVER FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD. THIS MAINTAINS WARM CONDITIONS WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
SLOWLY INCREASES IN MOISTURE AS WINDS GENERALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BY.
.LONG TERM...
ONCE AGAIN...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FCST. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL RAISE THE LEVEL OF
DISCOMFORT FOR THE WEEKEND. AS SPRAWLING AND STRONG 500 MB RIDGE
SLOWLY EXPANDS AND SLIDES TO THE ESE...THE SFC-850 RIDGE WILL EASE
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MEAN FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER
(STILL UP TO 6K FEET) TO THE SSW...ALBEIT LIGHT.
THIS WILL CAUSE DWPTS TO RISE A BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND LOWEST VALUES OVER THE EAST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVENTUALLY...DWPTS WILL REACH NORMAL VALUES FOR
THE END OF MAY...NEAR 70 OR ABOVE DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE HEAT INDEX...THE FIRST LEVEL OF DISCOMFORT...TO NEAR
100 BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WELL INLAND.
IN ADDITION...CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY SUGGESTS INCREASING HAZE AND
DECREASING AIR QUALITY AS RIDGE AXIS CENTERS ACROSS THE S 1/3 OF THE
PENINSULA. HAVE ADDED HAZE FOR THE FRI-SUN PERIOD (DAYLIGHT
HOURS)...AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL OZONE ISSUES FOR THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
SITUATION MAY VERY WELL CARRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL WAIT
UNTIL MORE DATA ARRIVE AS GFS BEGINNING TO HINT AT A BREAKDOWN TO
THE RIDGE TOWARD MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH THE BREAKDOWN...STILL NO DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE FOUND IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE PUTTING
RAINY SEASON ON HOLD.
MAY ISSUE AN SPS TO DISCUSS THE DETERIORATING AIR MASS. CERTAINLY...
THE PLACE TO BE WILL BE ON THE GULF BEACHES...WHERE AFTN SEA BREEZE
WILL PUSH POLLUTANTS INLAND AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SOME 5-7 DEGREES
LOWER.
&&
.MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...INTO THE CENTRAL FA WED AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL FOR THU INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE WINDS
WESTERLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OUT HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE INLAND
COUNTIES AND THE INLAND SECTIONS IN THE SOUTH FA. THIS MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WED LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER IFFY DAY FOR A RED FLAG BUT WILL DEFFER TO LATER SHIFTS.
MOISTURE INCREASE ENOUGH THU TO KEEP RH ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SUMTER...POLK...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...DE SOTO
AND INTERIOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 90 72 90 / 00 00 00 00
FMY 68 91 70 92 / 00 00 00 00
GIF 69 94 70 94 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 68 87 70 87 / 00 00 00 00
BKV 62 92 64 92 / 00 00 00 00
&&
$$
SHORT TERM-RKR
LONG TERM-BSG
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: KirbyDude25 and 80 guests