Area of Interest for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin

[Guest]

Area of Interest for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin
For May 24, 2004
updated at 9:35pm/et
by
Barometer Bob Brookens
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Area of Interest Update!



Well once again as expected, we have a 1009MB (I forecasted a 1008MB low) low pressure in the Southern Bahama's. The forecast models at FNMOC are performing well this early in the season. Lets hope this continues through the 2004 hurricane season.
As mentioned in the 00zulu Tropical Weather Discussion released by the National Hurricane Center, we have a 1009MB low pressure located along a trough that extends from the low into the Northcentral Caribbean. The IR4 loop show strong convection developing near the center of circulation. Even though this circulation center is weak, we will continue to watch this area of interest over the next couple of days.
Reason being, the NOGAPS and GFS(FNMOC) want to briefly develop a closed circulation late Wednesday and into Thursday, as does the MRF (Wyoming). This would give us a 1010MB low pressure center, but will that combined with the convection to the east of the low level circulation center be enough to issue a tropical depression staement? No, I beleive we will see a gale warning in the Atlantic at most, and this area will be reflected to as a dry run for most of us that post these types of discussions.
Again, development of this area is not expected, but some further statements from the NHC are possible.
Remember, with the shear lifting north and east, and high pressure building north from the Caribbean the chances lessen as this area moves further north and eventually northeastward through midweek.
Keep in touch with your LOCAL WEATHER OUTLETS, and the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER for further information!