ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM ???

[HURAKAN]

This is according to the lastest Tropical Weather Discussion Map, published by the NHC/TPC, the new low will form much more to the NE than the original one, and the last one will dissipate. This is not my prediction, this is what I can deduce by seeing the picture. There the water temperature is marginal favorable for development. Lets see what happens, these tropical systems are very tricky.

Sandy Delgado

[Wnghs2007]

This will develop in almost perfect conditions. Shear weak and ssts favorable. I will give it a 55 % chance of development. Has a nice blob of convection over it and it could strengthen. Nhc still calling for Possible tropical cyclone formation. WIll be interesting to see what comes out of this. LETS GO ALEX!!!!!!

[HURAKAN]

WIll be interesting to see what comes out of this. LETS GO ALEX!!!!!!

Maybe Subtropical Storm Alex.

Sandy Delgado

[Hurricanehink]

Subtropicals are fine in my book. Oddly enough, we haven't had a strictly all Subtropical storm for a while, I believe since 1992 with the April storm. Most other times, they became tropical. Florence (1994), Florence, Leslie, and Michael (2000), Karen, Noel, and Olga (2001), Gustav and Kyle (2002), and Ana and Peter (2003). There were only two subtropicals, and they weren't even storms operationally. Just a little information I'd like to pass on.

By the way, when did they change from Subtropical Storm 1 to Subtropical Storm such and such? I noticed it first in 2002 with Subtropical Storm Gustav, but in 2000, Karen was Subtropical Storm 1, if memory serves m right.

[HURAKAN]

Subtropicals are fine in my book. Oddly enough, we haven't had a strictly all Subtropical storm for a while, I believe since 1992 with the April storm. Most other times, they became tropical. Florence (1994), Florence, Leslie, and Michael (2000), Karen, Noel, and Olga (2001), Gustav and Kyle (2002), and Ana and Peter (2003). There were only two subtropicals, and they weren't even storms operationally. Just a little information I'd like to pass on.

By the way, when did they change from Subtropical Storm 1 to Subtropical Storm such and such? I noticed it first in 2002 with Subtropical Storm Gustav, but in 2000, Karen was Subtropical Storm 1, if memory serves m right.

You are 100% right, in 2002 the NHC came to a decition to give name to subtropical systems, that's why when Gustav was a SS received a name. For the amounts of subtropical storms, you are almost right, but not complete. In October of 2000, after Nadine, a subtropical storm developed next to the Bahamas, right where this disturbance is now, and moved northward. At first the NHC didn't admit this subtropical storm but was added to the list of 2000's storms when the NHC did the Best Track. Look at the map below.



Sandy Delgado

[Wnghs2007]

Hey Hurricane. If that one is going to dissapate. Then why did the NHC just move the PTCF to the low in the Bahamas Wierd. Maybe they didnt catch there own memo.

[Hurricanehink]

You are 100% right, in 2002 the NHC came to a decition to give name to subtropical systems, that's why when Gustav was a SS received a name. For the amounts of subtropical storms, you are almost right, but not complete. In October of 2000, after Nadine, a subtropical storm developed next to the Bahamas, right where this disturbance is now, and moved northward. At first the NHC didn't admit this subtropical storm but was added to the list of 2000's storms when the NHC did the Best Track. Look at the map below.



Sandy Delgado

I forgot about that one! I can't believe they didn't upgrade that operationally. That was better organized than many other storms I can think of, Beryl, Chris, Ernesto, Leslie, all from that season. Oh well, at least they upgraded it after the fact.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting, the NHC doesn't correlate one map with the other. Let see what happens.

Sandy Delgado

[vbhoutex]

Interesting, the NHC doesn't correlate one map with the other. Let see what happens.

Sandy Delgado

What do you mean by that? could you please explain further? If you are talkinga about the two maps I think you are, they seem to correlate to me.

[Wnghs2007]

Forecast as of 12z with 24 hour being 18z.

24 Hours (18z)


48 Hours (12z)


72 Hours (12z)



Then Latest TCPF:





With Satilite Image:



Latest Zoomed Shear Map:



With all this in mind looks like there is potential for development. Thanks. KC

[HURAKAN]

Don't worry to what I said, what matters is that Alex could form from this system. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

Sandy Delgado

[vbhoutex]

Don't worry to what I said, what matters is that Alex could form from this system. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

Sandy Delgado

But I do worry about what is said on this board as that is part of my job as a moderator. Another of my jobs on this board is to help educate everyone about weather and the tropics. When I see a statement such as yours I WILL continue to question it. We prefer to have backup to statements such as that. And I will reiterate one other thing here. QUESTIONING THE NHC/TPC, etc. is one thing(with attendant materials to back up your view). BASHING THEM IS NOT TOLERATED ON THIS SITE!!!

[Guest]

This system has a slim chance at best for right now of developing into Alex because for one the dry air and as well hostile conditions to the nw and you cant ignore the marginal water temps either.

Have a look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

[Wnghs2007]

This system has a slim chance at best for right now of developing into Alex because for one the dry air and as well hostile conditions to the nw and you cant ignore the marginal water temps either.

Have a look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Yes the water vapor loop does show dry air from the west but the possible LLCC is moving away from that. Hopefully it will not ingest any of it. Who knows. Second the water temps are still probally just about high enough to give this thing the juice needed for alex. As for the hostile conditions. It is also moving into the more favorable enviroment to the east.

[Guest]

This system has a slim chance at best for right now of developing into Alex because for one the dry air and as well hostile conditions to the nw and you cant ignore the marginal water temps either.

Have a look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Yes the water vapor loop does show dry air from the west but the possible LLCC is moving away from that. Hopefully it will not ingest any of it. Who knows. Second the water temps are still probally just about high enough to give this thing the juice needed for alex. As for the hostile conditions. It is also moving into the more favorable enviroment to the east.

If you take notice to the image i am posting below it will show that yes this system is moving towards the east but so is everything else as well which imo will limit any possible development in the near future. If you want a loop of this as well i will be very happy to provide it. Sorry guys but like i said this has very little chance of further development at this time.
You will also note that there is a rather large system (responseable for the severe outbreak in the plains/midwest) which is headed east and as well will start to pick up and shear anything apart down in the area you think is gonna develop as the system to the nw moves for the eastcoast.

[Matthew5]

I see what you are saying king of weather. But the blob to the east around 70 west, is being shown in the Avn computer model developing a low presssure. Then taking that low to the northeast just what you said. But this could very well be a short lived tropical cyclone to. Because it is forming in a favable area with less then 20 mph shear. It is possible at this time.

[Wnghs2007]

If you take notice to the image i am posting below it will show that yes this system is moving towards the east but so is everything else as well which imo will limit any possible development in the near future. If you want a loop of this as well i will be very happy to provide it. Sorry guys but like i said this has very little chance of further development at this time.
You will also note that there is a rather large system (responseable for the severe outbreak in the plains/midwest) which is headed east and as well will start to pick up and shear anything apart down in the area you think is gonna develop as the system to the nw moves for the eastcoast.

Ok. Lets just wait and see what the NHC think at 8:05 Pm. Yes the loop of that image( yes i do see the loop) shows it moving east. But then hence forth why do the models show this system moving into a more favorable enviroment. Case in point below

Shear at the moment or initially:



Shear at 12 hours:


Shear at 24 hours:


Shear at 36 hours:


Shear at 48 hours:


that shows it moving into a more favorable enviroment

[Guest]

I see what you are saying king of weather. But the blob to the east around 70 west, is being shown in the Avn computer model developing a low presssure. Then taking that low to the northeast just what you said. But this could very well be a short lived tropical cyclone to. Because it is forming in a favable area with less then 20 mph shear. It is possible at this time.

The key word to remember is "Possible"? I for one would never go with what just one model shows. Take a look at them all and then look at everything here such as the sats, upper levels (Shear ect)and other features (water temps etc) such as what i mentioned going on across the lower 48 and then start to form a opinion from it. The problem i think some are having here is a couple are out making it seem like this WILL (Not possibly) develop.

Hope this helps some!:)