Invest 90L

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #21 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed May 19, 2004 1:55 pm

I've noticed NRL has been running really slow lately. This includes data on the typhoons in the WPAC. They had some server problems last week and they're probably still fighting that issue.

Rainband · #22 Postby **Rainband** » Wed May 19, 2004 1:56 pm

senorpepr wrote:I've noticed NRL has been running really slow lately. This includes data on the typhoons in the WPAC. They had some server problems last week and they're probably still fighting that issue.

Thanks Mike!!! for the update!!

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 19, 2004 2:04 pm

Yes that may be the problem because the models heading is 90L already.

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 19, 2004 3:13 pm

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/AL90TRP.html

Here is the first grafic from the tropical models.

Josephine96 · #25 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed May 19, 2004 4:03 pm

Early model runs show it missing South Florida or the US altogether.. {if I read them correctly} lol

We need some rain here.. I wish we'd get some..

Anonymous · #26 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed May 19, 2004 4:34 pm

This run is highly unreliable. LBAR and A98E have horrible tracks records, typical GFDL shows dissipation in 12 hours, BAMD is designed for deep layer systems, and BAMM is out to lunch. That sums it up :lol:

#27 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed May 19, 2004 5:29 pm

Agree, all these early runs are highly unreliable. Alot will depend on where, if anything develops, it is located. Secondly, alot will depend on how strong the low becomes in determining the future track.

If this area sits over Costa Rica and Nic. we may not see anything develop at all!

Aquawind · #28 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed May 19, 2004 6:27 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Agree, all these early runs are highly unreliable. Alot will depend on where, if anything develops, it is located. Secondly, alot will depend on how strong the low becomes in determining the future track.

If this area sits over Costa Rica and Nic. we may not see anything develop at all!

Well said.. A defined center and then a couple of runs later(hopefully some consistancy) is when model track gets more believable..It's nice to have a good solid point to initialize for a couple runs..often tough to do.

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 20, 2004 6:28 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Now let's see with the invest up now with the tropical models iniciation if the global models can start at that area near Nicaragua/Costa Rica and start the runs all over.

*StOrmsPr* · #30 Postby ***StOrmsPr*** » Thu May 20, 2004 6:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

I dont know what is causing the delay of NRL to post the 90L invest up because every time the models begin to plot the invest goes up in a few minutes after that but there must be a problem with the site there because the information about 90E for the EPAC system has not been updated this morning.

hey cycloneye i send them yesterday and email asking for the delay because there were already model runs heres the answer

"The requirement is that the operational centers (JTWC, NHC, CPHC) are interested
in the area for potential development. Not based on model runs."

Buck Sampson
NRLMRY

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 20, 2004 6:48 pm

Interesting answer from them thanks for sharing Storms.

#32 Postby **MGC** » Thu May 20, 2004 10:38 pm

Well Missing in Action, no need to get upset. Who ever said I wanted this to be a cat 5? cat 5's are bad news. It was obvious this system was not going to spin. I just didn't see the point of the stds nor the invest. I still stand by my position....MGC

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