The Canada model shows something rare!

[Matthew5]

The canada model now shows it developing around 10 north 95 west in the eastern Pacific in then moving over to the Atlatnic side in bombing into a hurricane http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

[Aquawind]

Wow sure does..looks cool with all those pretty colors...models on rock..imho

[wxman57]

Actually, the UKMET shows the same thing:
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

And the GFS, too, to some degree:
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

[Aquawind]

Well.. they have hinted for a couple days at something organizing in the S Gulf with the Carib energy..I would expect at least a good slug of moisture is going to come N eventually.

[vbhoutex]

Most interesting!!! And as Matthew said RARE!!! Now we wait for consistency in the next runs for a few days!

[wx247]

Yes, consistency is the key. The best thing that could happen is to get some of this moisture into the SE. That would be nice.

[MWatkins]

Even the FSU Superensemble has a TC more or less tracking across Central America and into the Caribbean by day 6:

http://lexxy.met.fsu.edu/rtnwp/forecast ... aoloop.gif

The 6Z GFS run is stronger than the 0Z with a well-developed 950MB vorticity center tracking toward Jamica by day 7.

The 0Z GFS evolved a TC out of 3 distinct vort centers in embedded in a broader low pressure trough (day 4):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_096l.gif

The 6Z is similar but with a weaker, but more distinct low closing off in the Caribbean between days 4 and 5.

The 12Z runs will start coming in within the hour...will be interesting to see if the models continue to suggest this. Interesting that although it pretty much looks like a true TC closing off int he UKMet model, their text product doesn't reference it.

My guess is if anything evolves in the Caribbean...and the models are still screaming about it...it will come from the eastern (Atlantic) side of a low pressure trough closing off rather than a pure move from the epac over land.

More to come...

MW

[Brent]

The canada model now shows it developing around 10 north 95 west in the eastern Pacific in then moving over to the Atlatnic side in bombing into a hurricane http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

Cool.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow! Assuming a storm will develop, I wonder if it will form before it landfalls. BTW, what might be causing this northward turn?

[Stephanie]

Wow! It's great to see so many of the models agreeing on something like this so early!

[PTrackerLA]

Looks interesting. This will definately be something to watch since more than just one model are picking up on it.

[MWatkins]

The 12Z GFS once again jumps on this system...developing it south of Cuba around 90 hours (between days 4 and 5). This seems to the be the key time period for the models...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096m.gif

MW

[Derecho]

Yes, consistency is the key. The best thing that could happen is to get some of this moisture into the SE. That would be nice.

Eh, be careful what you wish for. Allison actually came out of the Eastern Pacific (not as an official TD yet, of course) before entering the Gulf of Mexico and flooding Houston.

[Rainband]

Derecho, Isn't this "system" projected to move NE?? and do so rapidly..once it gets caught in the westerlies. Thats what I have been reading in my AFDs. That is if a LLC ever comes to fruition

[LaBreeze]

We don't need any more moisture - a tropical system would only add to the flooding disaster taking place now in Louisiana.

[Stormsfury]

As parched as the Southeast is, a system would be greatly welcomed at this point in the game ...

SF