Extended model runs look rather interesting

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cycloneye
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Extended model runs look rather interesting

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 18, 2004 1:55 pm

From the Miami forecast discussion 2:35 PM EDT :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

EXTENDED RUNS LOOK RATHER INTERESTING CONCERNING A POSSIBLE CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT.THE GFS HAS NOW BEEN CONSISTANT ...RUN TO RUN... IN DEVELOPING A LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN BY FRI/SAT AND TRACKING IT NE WELL EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.IT WOULD BE EASY TO DISCOUNT ONE MODEL BUT ALL OF THEM? THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS ON AT LEAST A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SPINNING SOMEWHERE BY THIS WEEKEND UKMET/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN/NOGAPS ALL DESPICT THIS.

In my opinion we have to wait and see first if a surface low develops and after that how the shear will be to see if something will get going but for now only a wait and see is in order.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue May 18, 2004 6:03 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby MWatkins » Tue May 18, 2004 1:58 pm

I'm not sure anyone has seen the Euro from yesterday...but if not check out the last solution for 168 hours...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/

MW
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#3 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Tue May 18, 2004 1:58 pm

Well we will have to wait and see if that surface low does develope!
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 18, 2004 2:01 pm

WOW MW that is very interesting but let's see if the other models follow the EURO.
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#5 Postby wx247 » Tue May 18, 2004 2:14 pm

What are the chances of something subtropical developing in the Carib. ?
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 18, 2004 2:20 pm

Garrett hybrid looks like a good candidate for that system if it develops instead of sub-tropical down in the caribbean.
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#7 Postby wx247 » Tue May 18, 2004 2:25 pm

Okay... thanks! I wasn't sure.
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Rainband

#8 Postby Rainband » Tue May 18, 2004 2:26 pm

Is nogaps the only model taking it more north. The other take it NE right. I haven't had time to look at the others.
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#9 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue May 18, 2004 2:29 pm

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation


Well look at this one. It is very interesting. But I am not a bitter, BUT I must say that if it were to pan out. I would be one excited camper!!!
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#10 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Tue May 18, 2004 2:57 pm

Looks interesting indeed!
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#11 Postby Rainband » Tue May 18, 2004 3:03 pm

I will be more excited when a LLC actually forms!! :) We have been fooled by the models before!! :wink:
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#12 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Tue May 18, 2004 3:05 pm

Yes that we have! But it is fun following these models!
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Rainband

#13 Postby Rainband » Tue May 18, 2004 3:16 pm

Typhoon_Willie wrote:Yes that we have! But it is fun following these models!
I agree :wink:
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#14 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 18, 2004 4:39 pm

Rainband wrote:Is nogaps the only model taking it more north. The other take it NE right. I haven't had time to look at the others.


Actually, the latest (12Z this morning) NOGAPS takes it NW toward the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in 144hrs:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2004051812
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Rainband

#15 Postby Rainband » Tue May 18, 2004 5:22 pm

I should have said NW :oops. I just meant not NE :lol: Chris thats the one I was looking at. :wink:
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#16 Postby Josephine96 » Tue May 18, 2004 5:47 pm

Bring on the storms!
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#17 Postby LaBreeze » Wed May 19, 2004 9:36 am

wxman57, we here along the Gulf Coast know that the northern tip of the Yucatan sometimes acts like a slingshot for storms.
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#18 Postby Brent » Wed May 19, 2004 9:42 am

wxman57 wrote:
Rainband wrote:Is nogaps the only model taking it more north. The other take it NE right. I haven't had time to look at the others.


Actually, the latest (12Z this morning) NOGAPS takes it NW toward the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in 144hrs:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2004051812


That will be nice. :D
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