Caribbean Developement? - HPC Prelim Discussion

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KatDaddy
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Caribbean Developement? - HPC Prelim Discussion

#1 Postby KatDaddy » Mon May 17, 2004 8:58 am

Welcome to Hurricane Season 2004. May not materialize however its a wake-up call for watching the tropics. Let the fun begin :)


IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE BULK OF THE OP MODELS ARE GENERATING
A TROPICAL LOW OFF THE NICARAGUAN COAST ON DAY 4/FRI. THE
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON TAKING AN UPR LOW OUT OF TX/MEX EWD
THRU THE GOMEX AND STALLING IT OVER FL/ERN GOMEX IN THE
MEDR...ALLOWING FOR NLY MOTION FOR THE SYS IN THE MEDR. THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CAN GLOB ARE AMONG THE STRONGER
SOLNS...BUT TAKE THE SYS ON PATHS THRU DAY 6/SUN. THE ECMWF
AND 6Z GFS ARE SLOWER AND MORE ELY WITH THE SFC LOW IN THE
CARIBBEAN THAN THE 0Z GFS AND CAN GLOB. THE CURRENT SAT
IMAGERY DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR FORMATION AS
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH THE MODELS CONSENSUS FAVORING A
SYS...WOULD PREFER TO HAVE SOMETHING IN THE REGION. THESE
SYS SEEM TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
MODELS SUGGEST. FOR NOW...THINK THE PREFERRED SOLN OVER THE
CONUS...A BLEND OF THE 0Z GFS AND THE GLOB ENS MEAN...IS
REASONABLE...BUT WOULD SUGGEST LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ENS
MEAN. THE GLOB ENS MEAN IS WEAKER AND SLOWER TO MOVE THE
SYS NWD THAN THE 0Z GFS...MORE LIKE THE GFS TREND IN
PSN...AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE GENERAL TENDENCY OF SUCH SYS
FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT.
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#2 Postby Brent » Mon May 17, 2004 9:01 am

Cool. 8-)
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#neversummer
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#3 Postby Guest » Mon May 17, 2004 11:38 am

It looks likely that something will develop down there in the next week or so.
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#4 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon May 17, 2004 8:08 pm

Still to early to tell for sure. I've been hooked by these models this far out way to many times to go with them just yet. Let's watch for some consistant convection and a surface low developing and then we may get TC development, at least for a short while until shear gets it!
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#5 Postby newt3 » Mon May 17, 2004 8:26 pm

I hate to wishcast, but something coming out of the gulf would be great here in the panhandle, or anywhere in florida because of the severe dry conditions. Everybody keep up the good work at supplying information on this board. It helps out a novice weather junkie like myself with some of the terminology. :)
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#6 Postby Rainband » Mon May 17, 2004 8:47 pm

Welcome!! :)
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#7 Postby Rainband » Mon May 17, 2004 8:48 pm

Thats what makes S2K so great. We all learn :)
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#8 Postby wx247 » Mon May 17, 2004 8:53 pm

I agree... I learn a lot here each and every day. I am just not too impressed with the possibility of a Caribbean system. The EPAC looks much more condusive.
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#9 Postby SacrydDreamz » Mon May 17, 2004 8:54 pm

MIA_canetrakker wrote:It looks likely that something will develop down there in the next week or so.


Likely? Based on what?
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#10 Postby Anonymous » Mon May 17, 2004 9:01 pm

The low doesn't appear too ominous this evening. I'd say that there is about a 4/10 chance for development attm. If the models begin to layoff then obviously those chances will diminish. Climatology, persistence and strong shear profiles are all still against development. We still have a long road ahead.
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#11 Postby Guest » Mon May 17, 2004 9:22 pm

SacrydDreamz wrote:
MIA_canetrakker wrote:It looks likely that something will develop down there in the next week or so.


Likely? Based on what?

Based on model agreement & gut feeling.

& Why would climatology be against it?

This is a quote from the Miami NWS Disc.,

"CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIB SEA AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES RATHER FAVORABLE UNDER A DIVERGENT FLOW JUST SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF."
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#12 Postby yoda » Tue May 18, 2004 12:56 pm

HERE IS A NEW ONE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...



IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPING A LOW ON DAY 3 OFF THE NICARAGUAN COAST. EVEN
THE UKMET HAS JUMPED ON BOARD TODAY. THE SAT IMAGERY NOW
HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION OFF ERN NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA...BUT
WE ARE HESITANT TO GO WITH A STRONG SYS OR TO MOVE IT TOO
QUICKLY. THEREFORE...KEPT CLOSE TO THE FORECAST GENERATED
YESTERDAY...BUT SLOWED THE SYS A BIT MORE...KEEPING IT S OF
CUBA THRU THE PD.
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#13 Postby Derecho » Tue May 18, 2004 3:04 pm

It's actually exceedingly rare for ALL (even the JMA has something) of the medium-range models to indicate tropical development and then not have it happen; heck, even if you only get 3-4 I actually can't think, off the top of my head, of an instance where something didn't form.

Bogus "model storms" tend to be on 1-2 models at most.
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Rainband

#14 Postby Rainband » Tue May 18, 2004 3:17 pm

Derecho wrote:It's actually exceedingly rare for ALL (even the JMA has something) of the medium-range models to indicate tropical development and then not have it happen; heck, even if you only get 3-4 I actually can't think, off the top of my head, of an instance where something didn't form.

Bogus "model storms" tend to be on 1-2 models at most.
Thanks for that tip. :) I will remember that.
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Good timing...

#15 Postby scogor » Tue May 18, 2004 6:24 pm

Decided to drop into the site and what do you know--the models have the gang discussing an early start to the season. Looks like I'll be dropping in for regular visits a little sooner than anticipated. Looking forward to another season of tropical fun and frolic...
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Rainband

#16 Postby Rainband » Tue May 18, 2004 7:11 pm

Welcome Back Scogor :)
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chadtm80

#17 Postby chadtm80 » Tue May 18, 2004 7:12 pm

Good to see you scogor
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Josephine96

#18 Postby Josephine96 » Tue May 18, 2004 7:38 pm

It would be nice to see Alex form or anything for that matter..

Also.. I must say that we in Florida do need some rain.. A lot of rain.. I hope we get some.

Is it too early to start saying "It's definitely a TD" LMAO just kidding..

Welcome to the 2004 season.. :)
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