Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert South Indian Ocean...

[Typhoon_Willie]

WTXS21 PGTW 260130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 260121Z2 APR 04//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5S4 59.9E3 TO 16.8S5 61.4E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 252031Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S7 60.4E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY NEAR 10.2S3 59.8E2,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S7 60.4E0, APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
WEST-SOUTHWESTOF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC); HOWEVER, IT ALSO
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH POSSIBLE DUAL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS BECOMING EVIDENT. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY LLCC
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE LLCC AND THE
POLEWARD OUTLFLOW CHANNEL IS LINKED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270100Z0.
//

[rainstorm]

thanks for the info