OTIS shows colder East Pac...

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hurricanetrack
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OTIS shows colder East Pac...

#1 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Apr 19, 2004 8:52 am

Wow. The latest SST anomaly map from https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif shows that the cold tongue has grown a lot in the last day or so. Let's see if this keeps up....
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 19, 2004 12:36 pm

The best way to keep track of the ENSO factor is from week to week instead of day by day because fluctuations are common and changes may come but a trend has to be established in a 2-3 week period to then say for sure how the waters are doing.
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#3 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Apr 19, 2004 1:19 pm

I can tell you that the lower than normal temperatures along the Florida west coast can be attributed to the windy conditions we've had over the last few weeks. We've had an abnormally long period of westerly and south-westerly winds which have server to push the deeper and cooler waters on-shore. I'm sure as our pattern returns to normal we'll catch up quickly. ;-)
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#4 Postby MWatkins » Mon Apr 19, 2004 1:55 pm

For comparison puropses...it sure doesn't look like any significant nino is on the way.

1997 event data in the middle of April isn't available from OTIS...but the beginning of April and the Middle of May 1997 are.

April 2 2002:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif


By 14 May...a full-flegged Nino was underway:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

Hopes for a nino by September I think are dashed at this point...even if one starts to develop it will probably not mature until after the peak of the Atlantic season...

MW
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