Tropical Update: 03 Mar

[senorpepr]

Note: We’ve dropped Invest 94S

A) TC Evan (15P): At 03/1125Z...
Position near 14.6S 128.2E (90nm SW of Darwin, Australia)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb

The remnants of Evan are tracking along the northern coast of Australia. There is still a favorable atmosphere aloft of Evan. The JTWC sites Evan with having a “fair” chance at redevelopment.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

B) TC Gafilo (16S): At 03/1600Z...
Position near 13.1S 62.1E (510nm NNE of Mauritius)
Movement toward the W at 21 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 70 mph
Minimum central pressure is 980 mb
T# numbers: 3.5/3.5

Although Gafilo has strengthened, he is progressing forward at a fast rate of speed. Expect Gafilo to continue tracking around the northern edge of the subtropical ridge. Meanwhile, expect ample strengthening. The 48 hour point of the forecast shows Gafilo at 140 mph. We shall see.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 604web.txt

C) Invest (95P): At 03/1125ZZ...
Position near 13.3S 149.6E
Maximum sustained winds are 15 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb

This system is between Papua New Guinea and Australia. JTWC does not mention anything yet on this system.

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Remember for storm information, to include watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

[senorpepr]

UPDATE

D) Invest (96S): At 03/1830ZZ...
Position near 10.8S 88.5E
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph

[F-Bo]

I know its the 4th now, just didn't want to start a new thread...

BUT

Evan is looking mighty impressive!! Around 01 to 06Z there was really no convection present...and then all of a sudden, once the LLC emerged it literally exploded! Quite fascinating IR satellite loop - says it all. I would be very surprised if a TCFA is not issued by 1800Z. That said it still is tough to pick out a center - however QScat's are showing 30 to 40 knots embedded within the flare along the Kimberly coastline. Even though the long range models point towards a due westward movement, those guys down near Onslow have to be shaking in their boots!