Tropical Update: 8 Feb

[senorpepr]

1) Invest (97P). Located at 08/1400Z NE of Queesland, Australia. The JTWC has not began issuing guidance on this system. Regardless, NRL Monterey had dropped 96P yesterday evening, the reissued it as 97P. The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre out of Brisbane, QLD, Australia, states that computer models show 97P deepening into a tropical cyclone over the NW Coral Sea after Tuesday. The note that the potential for development within the next 36 hours is "low" but is "high" from 36-72 hours. This is something we'll continue monitoring. Latest Dvorak estimates are unavailable as the responsibile agencies have yet to begin issuing T# numbers.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ10810.shtml
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Click the links above for the latest advisory or go to the JTWC's website: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html for latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery.

[Hurricanehink]

Aww, it's ashame that nothing is going on in the tropics. Oh well, June is just 4 months away (though I have a feeling that we'll have a May storm).

[senorpepr]

A CYCLONE could form off far north Queensland this week, the weather bureau said.

The bureau said it was watching a monsoon trough over Cape York Peninsula which could give birth to the cyclone.

It said a burst of the monsoon was expected into the Coral Sea early this week with most computer models forecasting a tropical cyclone to develop in the northern Coral Sea about Tuesday.

If the cyclone did develop it was expected to move westwards with increasing winds and rains along the north tropical coast.

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

IDQ20008
SECURITE
 
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1859 UTC 8 February 2004

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical low with a central pressure of 1003 hectopascals centred at 081800UTC
near 09south 154east slow moving. Position poor.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 200nm of low.
FORECAST
Expect clockwise winds to increase to 30/35 knots during the next 18 to 24
hours. Seas rising to very rough. 

Forecast positions
090600UTC near 10S 154E 1002 hPa
091800UTC near 11S 153E 1000 hPa

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.  Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels.  Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
 
WEATHER BRISBANE

[Aslkahuna]

the satellite presentation is somewhat underwhelming on this system as there's no evidence of turning in the convective activity.

Steve