Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert...Arafura Sea.

[Typhoon_Willie]

To the North of North Central Austrailia...


WTPS21 PGTW 180900 RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180851ZDEC2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 125 NM RADIUS OF 9.9S8 135.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180930Z1 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S8 135.3E2. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.7S6 135.9E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S8 135.3E2, APPROXIMATELY 310
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
AROUND A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). LATEST 200 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190900Z9.//

NNNN