TPC - Hurricane Peter?

[MWatkins]

No joke.

TROPICAL STORM PETER SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON EST TUE DEC 09 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PETER IS DEVELOPING AN EYE FEATURE
AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATES. IN FACT..IF
THE EYE FEATURE PERSISTS...PETER COULD BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICALE
LATER TODAY. NO CHANGES IN TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ARE
INDICATED IN THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1700Z 20.3N 37.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 36.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 34.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 25.5N 32.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED

MW

[MWatkins]

Sure does look like a banding-type eye is developing...check out the loops (block out the first 4 or 5 frames)...almost 3/4 of an eyewall is already in place:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Hopefully the upcoming TRMM pass will go over the center...

MW

[cycloneye]

Oh boy Mike it is the first time I see that TPC does a new discussion one hour later from the advisory another first I guess.And yes it looks more and more like a hurricane another first if it turns into a cane in december.

[weatherluvr]

Am I correct in assuming that an event like this really could have happened at any time of the year? By that I mean the opening of a small corridor of favorable upper-level winds, over warm SST's, with an existing disturbance?

[wxman57]

Let me take another picture......

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/peter10.gif">

And zoomed out a bit:
<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/peter11.gif">

[MWatkins]

Am I correct in assuming that an event like this really could have happened at any time of the year? By that I mean the opening of a small corridor of favorable upper-level winds, over warm SST's, with an existing disturbance?

Peter is located over what is estimated to be marginal SST's for any tropical development...let alone hurricane development:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anal.gif

Although water temps basin-wide are pretty much above normal everywhere:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anom.gif

Usually...water temps usually need to be 26C or higher to support tropical development (although I can't remember when this happened...a few years ago in the dead of winter there was a hurricane-like feature in...what was it...the Bearing sea or the Mediterranean or someplace like that...it didn't last very long but it raised the question if the 26C rule applies if the surrounding thermodynamic environment is cooler...if anyone can remember or has links please post...it was fascinating)....and Peter is just hanging around the 26C isotherm.

However...water temps will continue to get colder all over the Atlantic in the coming months...and the basin will soon become too cold to develop much of anything.

There have been a few documented cases of sub-tropical development over the winter...but seeing a true tropical system flip from a non-tropical gale center over the open Atlantic is an extremely rare, once every 100 years, type of event. Who knows...in this era of global climate change this type of thing may become more common. Over the last several years...we've seen:

Lenny go west to east in November as a Cat 4
Mitch become a Cat 5 on October 26 1998
An April pure Tropical system

And we've only had satellite coverage out there for 50 years...and IR for less than that. So you could be correct with that statement. Nobody knows for sure...but in the Atlantic...it is still very very very rare.

MW

[HurricaneGirl]

Craziness I say, utter craziness!!

[weatherluvr]

Here's a link to some info on the Mediterranean "hurricane" of January 1995:

http://www.mindspring.com/%7Ejbeven/intr0008.htm

[Stormsfury]

Here's a link to some info on the Mediterranean "hurricane" of January 1995:

http://www.mindspring.com/%7Ejbeven/intr0008.htm

This event looked more like a "polar" low, but very, very interesting nonetheless ... the system still had a "warm" core, relatively speaking to its surroundings ...