Dr Gray first 2004 outlook sees an active season 13/7/3

[AussieMark]

wxman57, I know exactly what you mean ... Floyd was CAT 2, and not "major" in the technical sense of the word, but the wind field was very large. I recorded a 77 mph wind gust from Floyd (with the eye 120 miles away from my location) ... up the road, some 70 miles NE, locations in NE South Carolina, and in NC picked up a torrential amount of rain ... and most of the 57+ deaths occurred due to inland flooding and $6 BILLION in damage ... still a major catastrophe such as Allison was in Houston in 2001 ... sometimes intensity of the winds of a storm is a relatively mute point.

SF

All of this was correct just one small detail i want to correct the Damage Bill from Floyd was later scaled down from $6 Billion to $4.5 Billion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastcost.shtml

[btangy]

ENSO strength next summer is a big question mark. If there happens to be an early onset El Nino during the summer, then that may influence the hurricane season greatly.

[cycloneye]

ENSO strength next summer is a big question mark. If there happens to be an early onset El Nino during the summer, then that may influence the hurricane season greatly.

Agree that it very early to say for sure that ENSO is not going to be a big factor during the 2004 season because many variables may come into play during the next few months and affect the atlantic season positivly or negativly.

[rainstorm]

this sounds like his preseason 97 outlook. he thought the elnino would be weak and the other favorable factors would be more significant. if the el nino is indeed weak then he will be right. if the elnino is strong as in 97, he will bust. everything is set up for a powerful season, just depends on mr nino

[Typhoon_Willie]

That is true everything is set up for a good season. So we will have to wait and see what goes on with el nino...

[Anonymous]

this sounds like his preseason 97 outlook. he thought the elnino would be weak and the other favorable factors would be more significant. if the el nino is indeed weak then he will be right. if the elnino is strong as in 97, he will bust. everything is set up for a powerful season, just depends on mr nino

Looks like Isabel didn't change a thing

[rainstorm]

this sounds like his preseason 97 outlook. he thought the elnino would be weak and the other favorable factors would be more significant. if the el nino is indeed weak then he will be right. if the elnino is strong as in 97, he will bust. everything is set up for a powerful season, just depends on mr nino

Looks like Isabel didn't change a thing

isabel wont have any effect on next season

[RNS]

A great article (as usual) By DR Gray. i would like to add that considering as how we are within the long-term ATC strong cycle...(and long term PDO cold phase suggestive of weaker warm ENSO events) leads me to believe that we will be dealing with an overriding tendency for normal to above normal TC activity over the next 10 to 15 years (or depending on how long those respective cycles last...though given climo they should remain for 15 to 25 yrs with the exclusion of periodic short term fluctuations which are common).

Now this is not to say that we will not have below average hurricane season b/c we will...however i do think the remainder of this decade will feature an overall upswing in seasonal TC numbers in the Atlantic.

the E PAC seasons should be rather inactive in general the remainder of the decade courtesy of the PDO long term cold cycle.

[cycloneye]

A great article (as usual) By DR Gray. i would like to add that considering as how we are within the long-term ATC strong cycle...(and long term PDO cold phase suggestive of weaker warm ENSO events) leads me to believe that we will be dealing with an overriding tendency for normal to above normal TC activity over the next 10 to 15 years (or depending on how long those respective cycles last...though given climo they should remain for 15 to 25 yrs with the exclusion of periodic short term fluctuations which are common).

Now this is not to say that we will not have below average hurricane season b/c we will...however i do think the remainder of this decade will feature an overall upswing in seasonal TC numbers in the Atlantic.

the E PAC seasons should be rather inactive in general the remainder of the decade courtesy of the PDO long term cold cycle.

Agree on what you said about the next decades being active ones for atlantic tropical seasons and the 2004 one may be another one of those.Many factors are favorable such as the westerly QBO and the atlantic thermoline circulation those 2 are very important for a season to be active even if ENSO is in a weak el nino stage but time will tell in the next 6 months what kind of season we will see.