Tropical 03S moving toward Madagascar...

[Typhoon_Willie]

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 11.9S1 60.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 60.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 12.2S5 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 12.7S0 57.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.0S4 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.2S6 54.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 60.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 060530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25, 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE APPROACH OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
THEREBY DEEPENING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03S WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE IS
REPLACED BY A TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03S WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//

NNNN

Some slow strengthening is expected.