2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

It's looking grim. First time I've ever been genuinely bearish (started tracking in 2016).

Damn you've been spoiled then, lol. But I guess I'm no better, 2015 for me, so I really only got to experience one truly quiet year even though I only had a surface-level understanding of the tropics by then.

[zzzh]

We should see some decent warming with this round of NAO-.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/0nBvNZv.gif
We should see some decent warming with this round of NAO-.

Actually pretty impressive how widespread the slackening of trades is. We'll see how much warming this conjures.

[cycloneye]

@AndyHazelton
Even without El Niño, the current SST configuration in the Atlantic is not one that I would associate with a busy hurricane season, with a classic -AMO horseshoe showing up in the global-mean-removed anomaly plots. We should see some warming of the MDR over the next two weeks as trade winds slow, but overall it looks like the Atlantic is probably going to be the coolest it's been during hurricane season since ~2018-2019.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2044777703946043499

[cycloneye]

What do the members think about the sst analogs from Andy Hazelton?

@WeathermanAAA_
Contrary to the Pacific, the Atlantic's SST configuration appears exceptionally hostile for TC development this season.

Note the cold canary current showing up on both the standard SSTa and global mean removed SSTa plots. El Nino aside, this alone would suggest below average activity this year.

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/2045953211513610527



@AndyHazelton
To this point, these are the top-10 SST analogs for the Canary Current region for this date:
>>> top10_rmse_canary
array([1989, 1994, 2015, 1986, 2009, 1985, 1990, 1992, 2002, 1991, 1993])

Even the non-Niño years in here were generally quiet, and the years where a solid El Niño did form (1994, 2009, 1991, 2015) were even more quiet. Those 4 years and maybe something like 1997 are the type of analogs I'd be looking at for Atlantic activity this year.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2045960121587769576

[DorkyMcDorkface]

What do the members think about the sst analogs from Andy Hazelton?

@WeathermanAAA_
Contrary to the Pacific, the Atlantic's SST configuration appears exceptionally hostile for TC development this season.

Note the cold canary current showing up on both the standard SSTa and global mean removed SSTa plots. El Nino aside, this alone would suggest below average activity this year.

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/2045953211513610527



@AndyHazelton
To this point, these are the top-10 SST analogs for the Canary Current region for this date:
>>> top10_rmse_canary
array([1989, 1994, 2015, 1986, 2009, 1985, 1990, 1992, 2002, 1991, 1993])

Even the non-Niño years in here were generally quiet, and the years where a solid El Niño did form (1994, 2009, 1991, 2015) were even more quiet. Those 4 years and maybe something like 1997 are the type of analogs I'd be looking at for Atlantic activity this year.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2045960121587769576

Two of those years (1985 & 1989) were actually decently active relatively speaking (have to remember the 80s and early 90s were a generally dead period in the Atlantic) but the former featured a La Niña and the latter cool-neutral so they obviously can be discarded as viable analogs in this case.

I calculated the four Niño years he emphasized in particular and got an average tally of 8.75 NS/3.5 HU/1.5 MH, so it goes to show how lethal a strong Niño/cool MDR tandem can be on activity.

[Category5Kaiju]

What do the members think about the sst analogs from Andy Hazelton?

@WeathermanAAA_
Contrary to the Pacific, the Atlantic's SST configuration appears exceptionally hostile for TC development this season.

Note the cold canary current showing up on both the standard SSTa and global mean removed SSTa plots. El Nino aside, this alone would suggest below average activity this year.

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/2045953211513610527



@AndyHazelton
To this point, these are the top-10 SST analogs for the Canary Current region for this date:
>>> top10_rmse_canary
array([1989, 1994, 2015, 1986, 2009, 1985, 1990, 1992, 2002, 1991, 1993])

Even the non-Niño years in here were generally quiet, and the years where a solid El Niño did form (1994, 2009, 1991, 2015) were even more quiet. Those 4 years and maybe something like 1997 are the type of analogs I'd be looking at for Atlantic activity this year.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2045960121587769576

Two of those years (1985 & 1989) were actually decently active relatively speaking (have to remember the 80s and early 90s were a generally dead period in the Atlantic) but the former featured a La Niña and the latter cool-neutral so they obviously can be discarded as viable analogs in this case.

I calculated the four Niño years he emphasized in particular and got an average tally of 8.75 NS/3.5 HU/1.5 MH, so it goes to show how lethal a strong Niño/cool MDR tandem can be on activity.

This why it's going to be especially important to see just how warm the tropical Atlantic is able to get in the coming days, weeks, and months. If it remains as cool as expected, then we could be looking at fairly low levels of overall activity (individual storm strength/behavior is another topic altogether). But who knows....maybe University of Arizona is onto something after all

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I have mentioned before my skepticism towards any role an Atlantic Niño may play this season being heavily negated by actual ENSO but here's an argument from the other side of the aisle:

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2045877323635810439


 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2045878275700891773


 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2045883267484692709


 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2045883535538389214

[cycloneye]

The only areas that may get good ACE numbers are the subtropics and the gulf where the most focus will be on activity with El Niño present. The basin as a whole will not get a lot of ACE, maybe peaking around 70-80. The Canary Current is cold.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2046646218147745893

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2046646218147745893

Yeah it's been brutal down there (Florida in particular). 100% agree that they would benefit greatly from a typical June sheared and east-weighted TS for their sake, although given ENSO and SSTs in general you'd think the EPAC would be primarily favored when it comes to early-season CAG developments.

[chaser1]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2046646218147745893

Bad link?
Edit: It eventually did load

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2047454271445037459

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I'm definitely anticipating for this thread to be quite slow throughout the year. This season may very well be one to punt, no real evident factors that stand out which could unexpectedly alter the course of the season a la 2023. I think 2027 could be far different though, once the fuel supply for this Niño in the IPWP subsurface finally exhausts we should see the usual strong/super Niño to La Niña transition and warming of the tropical Atlantic that comes with it. I'm sure you can connect the dots from there...

[TomballEd]

Not sure if it has a name but the tropical Atlantic east of 50W is cooler than normal. That won't help the 2026 season. A year off following disaster season after disaster season will make a slow forum but most people will appreciate it.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps, with this going on about the -NAO, it may change some minds of some here about a slightly below average season to maybe a average one. Consider this when you participate in the 2026 Storm2k Numbers Poll.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2048481219185156381

[cycloneye]

There is the change at MDR to more warmer waters in the past few days.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

There is the change at MDR to more warmer waters in the past few days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_eatl_1.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

The CFS has hinted at a warmup for a while now. Question will be if it can sustain, though (which the model thinks will happen). By no means am I anticipating a 2023-esque spike (obviously) but I suppose any bit of warming helps in a scenario like this, and, as Andy mentioned, it could mean the difference between like 40 ACE and 70 ACE (below avg either way though)