Expert forecasts for the 2026 NATL hurricane season

[Category5Kaiju]

FYI, TSR has officially released their annual ultra-early December outlook for the upcoming hurricane season. They predict 14/7/3 with an ACE of 125. Here's the link to their explanation on what to possibly expect.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDecember2026.pdf

[cycloneye]

JB released his preliminary outlook for the 2026 season and goes very high on the numbers.



His discussion:

https://www.cfact.org/2026/02/14/el-nin ... xt-winter/

[DorkyMcDorkface]

JB released his preliminary outlook for the 2026 season and goes very high on the numbers.

https://i.imgur.com/ZnPqyd7.png

His discussion:

https://www.cfact.org/2026/02/14/el-nin ... xt-winter/

I could go off on a tangent over how absurd his reasoning is behind the abnormally warm NATL SST profile in 2023 but I will show restraint for the sake of getting to the point...

Not saying there is zero chance the CanSIPS will verify with its CPAC-based look (we still have the SPB to get past in order to get a clearer picture of how this Niño will evolve) but it's weird he's singling that model out in particular when none of the others have such a depiction at the present time. Not to mention his analogs (1969, 2004 & 2023) just seem far-fetched given they are of varying strengths and flavors; they are the three most active Niño seasons in the modern era so it feels like more than a coincidence he happened to choose them.

[tolakram]

I could go off on a tangent over how absurd his reasoning is behind the abnormally warm NATL SST profile in 2023 but I will show restraint for the sake of getting to the point...

Not saying there is zero chance the CanSIPS will verify with its CPAC-based look (we still have the SPB to get past in order to get a clearer picture of how this Niño will evolve) but it's weird he's singling that model out in particular when none of the others have such a depiction at the present time. Not to mention his analogs (1969, 2004 & 2023) just seem far-fetched given they are of varying strengths and flavors; they are the three most active Niño seasons in the modern era so it feels like more than a coincidence he happened to choose them.

Too late

I think what's interesting about his forecast is the focus on atmospheric linking, or lack thereof. If we have an el nino in ocean temps but the atmosphere is doing something else then a low shear el nino is plausible. I don't agree with the reasoning, and I don't agree with looking at ANY model output this early. Fun to talk about, but as far as I'm concerned the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season is still a complete unknown.

[Category5Kaiju]

JB released his preliminary outlook for the 2026 season and goes very high on the numbers.

https://i.imgur.com/ZnPqyd7.png

His discussion:

https://www.cfact.org/2026/02/14/el-nin ... xt-winter/

I understand that many of us are aware that JB's takes can be a hot potato at times, but one thing he raises that intrigues me a bit (and that also has been discussed a month or so ago in the ENSO thread) is the idea that having a warm global background state may possibly help neuter some of the incoming El Nino's detrimental effects on Atlantic activity otherwise.

Of course, this is just a theory, and we need to witness more seasons before firmly concluding anything. However, I think that 2026 will be a good initial litmus test to see how well or how poorly this idea holds up. Assuming we don't get a ridiculously warm Atlantic like we did in 2023 and assuming we don't get as wet of an Africa as we did in 2018, let alone an El Nino that comes in fairly late, will 2026's activity be more in line with the stereotypical El Nino year where activity is scarce and where everything struggles? Or will activity somehow exceed our expectations, even if just slightly? Because if it's the latter despite otherwise fairly unremarkable conditions, then perhaps it may be time to start wondering if RONI will play a bigger role in ENSO-related analyses down the line.

But yeah, his analog years of 1969, 2004, and 2023 are kind of bold to say the least, imho.

[USTropics]

JB released his preliminary outlook for the 2026 season and goes very high on the numbers.

https://i.imgur.com/ZnPqyd7.png

His discussion:

https://www.cfact.org/2026/02/14/el-nin ... xt-winter/

I understand that many of us are aware that JB's takes can be a hot potato at times, but one thing he raises that intrigues me a bit (and that also has been discussed a month or so ago in the ENSO thread) is the idea that having a warm global background state may possibly help neuter some of the incoming El Nino's detrimental effects on Atlantic activity otherwise.

Of course, this is just a theory, and we need to witness more seasons before firmly concluding anything. However, I think that 2026 will be a good initial litmus test to see how well or how poorly this idea holds up. Assuming we don't get a ridiculously warm Atlantic like we did in 2023 and assuming we don't get as wet of an Africa as we did in 2018, let alone an El Nino that comes in fairly late, will 2026's activity be more in line with the stereotypical El Nino year where activity is scarce and where everything struggles? Or will activity somehow exceed our expectations, even if just slightly? Because if it's the latter despite otherwise fairly unremarkable conditions, then perhaps it may be time to start wondering if RONI will play a bigger role in ENSO-related analyses down the line.

But yeah, his analog years of 1969, 2004, and 2023 are kind of bold to say the least, imho.

So I'll preface this with I think JB does have some decent takes on climate patterns, when they are scientifically backed. The geothermal tangent he's been going down for the past 2-3 years is just so off based though, it's borderline conspiracy theory. Let's do some napkin math real quick for this:

Let's go with what he is suggesting, that we have a temperature change (ΔT) of 5°C just from geothermal inputs. We'll set up an equation to find out how much energy we need to do this:

Q = rho * H * Cp * ΔT, where

rho is density of seawater (1025 kg m^-3)
H is column height of water layer (we'll generously say 50-m mixed layer, it's probably deeper than this though)
Cp is specific heat of seawater (approx 4.0 * 10^3 J kg^-1 K^-1)
ΔT = 5 K

That means
Q = 1025 * 50 * 4 * 10^3 * 5 = 1025000000 (or 1.025 * 10^9 J m^-2)

If we want to convert that to a flux over time, we have this simplified equation:
F = Q/t, where

t = 2 months (~60 days is 5.2 * 10^6 seconds)

So we have:
F = (1.025 * 10^9)/(5.2 * 10^6) = 200 W m^-2

For context, the TOTAL warming from solar input (minus turbulent losses) is about 100 W m^-2. Furthermore, literature states that geothermal input globally is on the magnitude of 0.1 - 0.3 W m^-2

So the math is not even in the same universe, let alone ballpark for his theory on geothermal input. It would be double solar input, and no way that is happening. The seismic activity for that would be astronomical, and definitely would be picked up by our monitoring devices.

So disregarding all that geothermal input nonsense, the only takeaway from his 'forecast' is exactly like you alluded to. As far as his analogs, we would need to see the Atlantic ocean temperatures match the El Nino surface temperatures in the Pacific. In that way, competing SST-boundary layer fluxes would not allow for mass subsidence dump in the Atlantic (i.e, competing rising motion, making subseasonal propagation patterns like MJO being the 'swing vote').

It's still very early in the game to even look at this data (i.e., need to wait until spring predicability barrier to assess this), but there is little model support at this time to back up his claim.