2025 EPAC Season

[Astromanía]

Surprised we didn’t see even a weak tropical storm in November. Very early shutdown to the season, I guess La Niña played a huge role here

[Astromanía]

So I noticed that the 2022 and 2025 Pacific hurricane seasons have some similarities. Both ended up with a similar number of storms, hurricanes, and majors (19/10/4 and 20/11/4 respectively), as well as somewhat similar ACE values (114 and 126). Both also lacked storms in November. The 2022 season occurred prior to the 2023 El Niño, which contributed to that year’s active season. Similarly, the 2017 season didn’t have a November storm either and was followed by the hyperactive 2018 season. Because of this, and the possible formation of El Niño next year, it seems reasonable to expect an active 2026 season with numbers similar to the 2023 season, at least in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a development before the year ends?

Developing Low Pressure/Swell event: A surface trough is analyzed
from 22N125W to13N127W. This trough is paired with a vigorous
and broad upper-level trough that is digging southward producing
abundant cloudiness with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, particularly from 15N to 20N between 115W and
120W. This area is also merging with a large NW to N swell that
has been spreading across the basin, with rough seas noted from
05N to 27N west of 115W. Earlier scatterometer satellite data
confirmed that fresh to strong winds are occurring between the
trough and high pressure to the north. The strongest winds to 25
kt are noted from 18N to 23N between 118W and 133W. Seas of 8 to
12 ft are within these winds. A broad low pressure area is
expected to develop in association with this trough near 20N127W
by this evening. The low is forecast to move northward and north
of the area by Wed evening or Wed night. The interaction between
this feature and high pressure to the north will continue to
result in a broad zone of fresh to strong winds from 15N to 27N
and west of 120W through tonight. Seas may reach up to 14 ft with
the strongest winds today. Conditions are forecast to improve by
the middle of the week.