When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

[weeniepatrol]

Regarding AMV, it’s clear we are still in an active era. These comebacks after statistically significant peak-season lulls in 2024/5 is almost conclusive proof of that on its own. I believe these lulls are primarily due to the superposition of bad intraseasonal forcing and climate change forcing. Since conditions continue to be broadly aligned with the active multidecadal phase, subsequent periods of favorable intraseasonal forcing allow activity to sharply return.

The net effect of Hadley cell expansion seems to be an increasing emphasis on intraseasonal forcing. IMO, we are entering an era where either the MJO (or shorter-timescale atmospheric Kelvin waves) is favorable and hurricanes are forming, or it isn’t favorable and hurricanes are not forming, regardless of climatology and perhaps even ENSO state.

In other words, the importance of MJO may be increasing as climate change Hadley cell stretching makes certain parameters less favorable simultaneous with sea temperatures rising, increasing the ceiling and potential. Solid MJO easily overcomes the former, thereby actualizing the latter.

Just my two cents. Could be wrong; climate change and hurricanes are unfathomably complex. Plus, 2024/5 is a sample size of only n=2 years so it could be coincidental.

[ncforecaster89]

In regards to the actual topic, I suspect the current warm/active AMO will likely persist for another 10-15 years (2035-2040) before we enter the cool/inactive phase once again…given the observed duration of the two prior active AMO periods of record.

Until we have a complete record of either phases of the AMO during the satellite era for comparative purposes, it’s speculative as to how much of an influence climate change may be having on TC activity or on the AMO. Given I personally want apples to apples comparisons, I refuse to even speculate on that particular subject matter.