2025 Global ACE: NH - 445.5 / NATL - 132.6 / EPAC - 126.6 - / WPAC -179.2 / NIO - 7.1

[Teban54]

As Larry noted on the Melissa page, the Atlantic just hit 100.2 ACE a few hours ago. This means we've surpassed:

• 100 ACE
• NOAA's 1951-2020 climo median of 96.7 ACE (which is more balanced between +AMO and -AMO than the 30-year climo)
• The 2022 season (94.7 ACE), which was the only one among the past 9 seasons that wasn't at least above-normal, and was a frequent comparison that people made with 2025 earlier this year

The next goalpost is in the 120s, both as the active 1991-2020 mean (122.5) and NOAA's above-normal threshold (126.1). Looks like Melissa will bring us there if the NHC forecast plays out.

[LarryWx]

As Larry noted on the Melissa page, the Atlantic just hit 100.2 ACE a few hours ago. This means we've surpassed:

• 100 ACE
• NOAA's 1951-2020 climo median of 96.7 ACE (which is more balanced between +AMO and -AMO than the 30-year climo)
• The 2022 season (94.7 ACE), which was the only one among the past 9 seasons that wasn't at least above-normal, and was a frequent comparison that people made with 2025 earlier this year

The next goalpost is in the 120s, both as the active 1991-2020 mean (122.5) and NOAA's above-normal threshold (126.1). Looks like Melissa will bring us there if the NHC forecast plays out.

IF the NHC forecast were to play out, Melissa could end up having the 3rd highest ACE on record for so late in the season of the last 100 years behind only Mitch of 1998 and the Nov Cuba H of 1932! Wilma wouldn’t qualify because it dissipated too early (10/25).

Going back further to 1851 on the record, only storm #6 of 1896 would appear to quite possibly have higher ACE later than Melissa again assuming NHC forecasts verify. So, Melissa could very well end up in rare company regarding the lateness of a very large ACE for a single storm on record.

[galaxy401]

Interesting thing is that Melissa can put the Atlantic very close to the EPAC regarding ACE despite the EPAC producing far more storms this year.

[cycloneye]

Teban54, NATL is ahead of WPAC in major hurricane days.

[cycloneye]

2025 now goes slightly up in ranking to #30. It was at #32 a couple of days ago.

[kevin]

ACE now stands at 117.1 for now. Melissa will add another 15.9 ACE based on the latest NHC forecast, which would bring the season total to 133 ACE, about the same as the season total for 2018 or 2019.

[Teban54]

Per CSU and NHC, Melissa has already generated 23.8 ACE. It will almost certainly surpass Humberto (26.7) as the second-highest ACE generator of this Atlantic season. The highest is Erin at 32.5 ACE.

2025's total ACE is 121.7 at the moment. By tomorrow, it would be classifiable as an "above-normal" season.

[cycloneye]

The 2025 season is now well above the average and there is still some room to add with the forecast for Melissa.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1983548511909273714

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1983548511909273714

Other than 2022, this year was probably the one time in recent years where "season cancel" calls during mid-season actually had the most merit.

2025 didn't have the "obviously hyperactive" indicators that 2024 or even 2023 had, and pre-season expectations were already tempered down. There was probably a time in September where a final ACE in the "near-normal" range, between 73 and 126, was actually realistic -- even if not as extreme as "Erin will be the only MH".

Yet, 2025 still managed to be above-average... Once the dust settles with Melissa, the season will likely join the range of a "run-of-the-mill above-average ACE" during the latest active period (132.2 in 2019, 132.6 in 2018, 142.5 in 2016, 145.6 in 2021, 148.2 in 2023), even if no more storms form afterwards.

[Iune]

The Atlantic (129.85) has now overtaken the EPac (127.2) now at the final stretch

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1983980828268097557

[cycloneye]

With the 5 PM advisory, the ACE reached and surpassed the 130 mark.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1984276784146477213

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1984276784146477213

Melissa now also has the highest ACE (34.7) of any 2025 storm in the Northern Hemisphere, narrowly edging out Erin (32.2). FYI, the highest ACE storms in the EPAC and WPAC are Kiko (31.0) and Ragasa (27.7) respectively. Melissa also generated more ACE than any Atlantic storm last year (whose highest was Beryl at 34.5).

Since 2000, the following Atlantic storms have higher ACE: Ivan (70.4), Irma (64.9), Isabel (63.3), Sam (54.0), Matthew (50.9), Dorian (48.9), Frances (45.9), Maria (44.8), Jose 2017 (43.3), Fabian (43.2), Igor (41.9), Florence (39.7), Ike (39.2), Wilma (38.9), Alberto 2000 (36.9), Lee 2023 (36.7), and Dean (35.2).

The fact that almost all these other storms were long-trackers (CV storms in the Atlantic), while Melissa spent most of its life within the Caribbean Sea, is quite notable. Wilma, and arguably Dean, are practically the only other exceptions.

Lastly, Melissa 2025 had almost the same ACE as the entire 2013 season (36.0), and 10x that of Melissa 2013 (3.5).

[LarryWx]

Sep 17th through Nov 3rd highest ACE back to 1851 based on tracks on record and my ACE calculations/estimates:

1878: ~105-110
1894: ~100-110
2025: 94
1893: ~89
2017: 88
2024: 86
2016: 85
2005: 85


So, 2025 had the highest Sept 17th-Nov 3rd ACE since 1895 and the 3rd highest on record!


Sept 17th-Nov 3rd ACE 2025-2010:

2025: 94
2024: 86
2023: 42
2022: 58
2021: 64
2020: 70
2019: 58
2018: 45
2017: 88
2016: 85
2015: 32
2014: 36
2013: 7
2012: 44
2011: 45
2010: 51

Edit: As we move forward through the rest of the season and look at Sept. 17th+ ACE, these seasons would overtake 2025 if it has no more ACE: 1932, 2005, 2020, and 2024 with 1893, 1896, and 1961 coming very close.