Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
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WaveBreaking
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Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
What do you all think? I think it has a good chance since the inner eyewall has been very resistant to structural changes.
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Re: Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
At this point I think it's entirely dependent on whether the plane makes it there before landfall, but there's a good chance it'll make it there by then, whether we find out or not
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Re: Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
It may have gotten there last night. That final eye drop supported 900 mb flat. Even the slightest deepening would put it over the threshold. Whether it still is now or if the NHC goes with sub-900 operationally or in post remains to be seen.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
We'll find out in the next hour or so. I personally suspect Melissa won't get there before landfall, but I also wouldn't be surprised if she did. The drops last night supported approximately 900 ( I think the NHC officially went 901)... with the inherent undersampling that comes with hurricane observation I certainly don't think its out of the question that she already did technically go sub-900, even if just slightly.
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Re: Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
I think recon will find Melissa stable at 905 - 910 mb. I won't rule out sub-900mb, but it has not gone below the 900 mb threshold even with a sustained T#8.0 appearance during the previous recon mission so I don't think it'll be any different now.
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tolakram
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Re: Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
No, eye is too large for that IMO. I could see around 900 at the lowest. We will know soon!
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
Hot take: It will, but 899 mbar, so just barely. 
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
Well, it smashed its way into the 800s. No doubt about it. Well into the 800s
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tolakram
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Re: Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
tolakram wrote:No, eye is too large for that IMO. I could see around 900 at the lowest. We will know soon!
Really wrong!
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M a r k
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Re: Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
At this point, the question is will Melissa's MSLP fall beneath 890 mb...
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Re: Poll: Will Melissa's MCP (Minimum Central Pressure) drop below 900mb before landfall?
Beef Stew wrote:At this point, the question is will Melissa's MSLP fall beneath 890 mb...
That might be ambitious as the core winds are about to come ashore, although it can happen that a hurricane briefly intensifies as it comes ashore, something to do with increased surface friction helping to aid convergence of warm moist air in the eyewall I think.
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