2025 NATL hurricane season is here

[DunedinDave]

I also say backloaded.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1965837402393686083

Wasn’t this exactly the same pattern we saw last year? I feel if we took this map and compared it to the same one from last yeR at this exact time, it’d be like looking at the same image.

[cycloneye]

Great thread here from WeatherTiger.

 https://x.com/wx_tiger/status/1966159225543176216



 https://x.com/wx_tiger/status/1966159236402196728



 https://x.com/wx_tiger/status/1966159230765088847



 https://x.com/wx_tiger/status/1966159238855798802

[ConvergenceZone]

I was looking up how many times we have had a year where no tropical storms or hurricanes hit the USA mainland. I honestly didn't expect to find any, but according to google AI, there have been several years that has happened, which shows how bad my memory is getting lol. Anyway, I know it's too early to say for sure, but it's quite possible 2025 might be added to that list.

[DunedinDave]

I was looking up how many times we have had a year where no tropical storms or hurricanes hit the USA mainland. I honestly didn't expect to find any, but according to google AI, there have been several years that has happened, which shows how bad my memory is getting lol. Anyway, I know it's too early to say for sure, but it's quite possible 2025 might be added to that list.

I think a TS will hit. Caribbean will become a hotbed in October and something will get into Gulf and hit a state. Might not be a Hurricane but instead a weak TS. I’d put those odds at 70%.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I was looking up how many times we have had a year where no tropical storms or hurricanes hit the USA mainland. I honestly didn't expect to find any, but according to google AI, there have been several years that has happened, which shows how bad my memory is getting lol. Anyway, I know it's too early to say for sure, but it's quite possible 2025 might be added to that list.

2025 has already had a tropical storm landfall back in July with Chantal.

[ConvergenceZone]

I was looking up how many times we have had a year where no tropical storms or hurricanes hit the USA mainland. I honestly didn't expect to find any, but according to google AI, there have been several years that has happened, which shows how bad my memory is getting lol. Anyway, I know it's too early to say for sure, but it's quite possible 2025 might be added to that list.

2025 has already had a tropical storm landfall back in July with Chantal.

Good call. I totally forgot about that one.

[Category5Kaiju]

We still have the latter half of September and October/November to get through, but if the claims that nothing big's going to happen again until November 30 are true, then it really throws in some key questions we will have to ask ourselves.

How did Erin happen? It takes more than just warm water to fuel a hurricane that intense and long-lived, so was August somehow more conducive for activity than September? Was the 2022/2024/2025 quiet peak season behavior just a one-off event, or are we going to see more of this kind of behavior in future years in the 2020s and perhaps even the 2030s?

[StormWeather]

We still have the latter half of September and October/November to get through, but if the claims that nothing big's going to happen again until November 30 are true, then it really throws in some key questions we will have to ask ourselves.

How did Erin happen? It takes more than just warm water to fuel a hurricane that intense and long-lived, so was August somehow more conducive for activity than September? Was the 2022/2024/2025 quiet peak season behavior just a one-off event, or are we going to see more of this kind of behavior in future years in the 2020s and perhaps even the 2030s?

https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/t_nbcnews-fp-1200-630,f_auto,q_auto:best/rockcms/2025-08/250816-hurricane-erin-vl-1021a-7950b6.jpg

This season is reminding me of years like 1980 and 1988. They were during the -AMO era and both years had few MHs, but 1988 managed to end up with three.

What I’m saying those years were duller and quieter, but they had some really strong Category 5s. 1980 with Allen and 1988 with Gilbert.

[WeatherBoy2000]

We still have the latter half of September and October/November to get through, but if the claims that nothing big's going to happen again until November 30 are true, then it really throws in some key questions we will have to ask ourselves.

How did Erin happen? It takes more than just warm water to fuel a hurricane that intense and long-lived, so was August somehow more conducive for activity than September? Was the 2022/2024/2025 quiet peak season behavior just a one-off event, or are we going to see more of this kind of behavior in future years in the 2020s and perhaps even the 2030s?

https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/t_nbcnews-fp-1200-630,f_auto,q_auto:best/rockcms/2025-08/250816-hurricane-erin-vl-1021a-7950b6.jpg

Erin formed during a relatively brief period of less hostile conditions and took advantage, the same could be said about a storm like Andrew in 1992. Hostile Atlantics make powerful hurricanes less likely, not impossible.

[LarryWx]

Though boring for tracking, I think it’s absolutely fascinating what’s been going on this Sept so far. The last time Sept had no TC this far into the month was way back in 1992! It had its first Sep TC on Sep 17th. If 2025 doesn’t get a TD+ by Sep 17th (going to be close because of many models progging the current E MDR AEW to become a TD near or just after that day; also have to make sure the low off NC doesn’t do the same), then 2025 would have the latest 1st Sep TC since 1939’s Sep 23rd!

Any predictions on whether either the current MDR AEW or the low off of NC will reach TD status by Sept 17th?

[psyclone]

unless and until something happens it seems only reasonable that this thread title be updated to "2025 NATL hurricane non season is here.

[Hurricane2022]

unless and until something happens it seems only reasonable that this thread title be updated to "2025 NATL hurricane season isn't here.

Agreed.

[LarryWx]

Perhaps this year’s slow Sept to this point is related to the strong E US trough pattern? Any thoughts?

Others with a somewhat similar cool E US pattern and low ACE Sept. appear to be 2013, 2009, 1994, 1962, 1956, 1914, and 1902. But I’m cherry-picking as there were many quiet ACE Septs without it being cool in the E US.

[cycloneye]

18 days in peak 2 weeks. Wow. I may change the title.

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1967594090096382387

[TampaWxLurker]

Maybe if only 92L develops but stays out to sea in the short-term, the thread can be retitled 2025 NATL hurricane season has gone fishin'

[LarryWx]

Maybe if only 92L develops but stays out to sea in the short-term, the thread can be retitled 2025 NATL hurricane season has gone fishin'

But it hasn’t entirely as TS Chantal affected parts of SC/NC greatly and H Erin affected especially E NC with storm surge and TS winds.

[AnnularCane]

Everyone forgets about poor Chantal.

[MetroMike]

I'm still hoping we can get to the "K" storm as Karen would be fun to discuss on the board if it was an interesting system.

[chaser1]

Maybe if only 92L develops but stays out to sea in the short-term, the thread can be retitled 2025 NATL hurricane season has gone fishin'

Or......
The 2025 Hurricane Season East of 60W