Area of interest in the Eastern Atlantic (0/30)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[WeatherBoy2000]

There's pretty decent ensemble/model support for at least a weak storm in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Some ensemble members and gfs runs have shown a potentially stronger storm out of this, but that seems unlikely given the generally hostile background state atm.

[TomballEd]

There's pretty decent ensemble/model support for at least a weak storm in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Some ensemble members and gfs runs have shown a potentially stronger storm out of this, but that seems unlikely given the generally hostile background state atm.

Pretty much all ensembles 'fish' and I'm not seeing any Cat 4s or 5s to appreciate the satellite pictures. GFS ensembles, unless I am blind, show nothing sub 990 mb. Op GFS suggests being surrounded by very dry air will limit it once it breaks of the MT/ITCZ.

[WeatherBoy2000]

There's pretty decent ensemble/model support for at least a weak storm in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Some ensemble members and gfs runs have shown a potentially stronger storm out of this, but that seems unlikely given the generally hostile background state atm.

Pretty much all ensembles 'fish' and I'm not seeing any Cat 4s or 5s to appreciate the satellite pictures. GFS ensembles, unless I am blind, show nothing sub 990 mb. Op GFS suggests being surrounded by very dry air will limit it once it breaks of the MT/ITCZ.

What I mean by stronger is anything beyond a weak TS, not necessarily a high-end major hurricane. Also, there have been a gfs runs that have shown a stronger storm, and the eps does have a handful of stronger members.

[cycloneye]

The upper enviroment looks bad for development.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO develops the wave as it moves west just north of the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Let's see if this lifts the peeps happiness in the board.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z EURO develops the wave as it moves west just north of the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Let's see if this lifts the peeps happieness in the board.

https://i.imgur.com/31ULTVO.gif

Yeah the Euro develops it later than the GFS, so it doesn't recurve early and run smack into the TUTT almost immediately. Interesting (if not expected) discrepancy between the two.

[cycloneye]

The run ends here.

[LAF92]

12z Euro ensembles are a bit more active and aggressive. The southern solutions seems to be the most aggressive and western.

[Kazmit]

Rare for the Euro to be more bullish and further west than the GFS.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS has this feature in the same area as the 12zEuro but as a wave, might be something to watch in due time

[LarryWx]

0Z UK

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.4N 35.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2025 120 14.4N 35.2W 1012 30
1200UTC 04.09.2025 132 15.2N 36.8W 1012 30
0000UTC 05.09.2025 144 15.8N 38.4W 1012 26
1200UTC 05.09.2025 156 16.8N 40.3W 1012 27
0000UTC 06.09.2025 168 17.5N 42.4W 1013 25