Models aren't picking up on this but to me looks interesting.
Deep in the ITCZ at about 45W, south of 10N.
Heavy convection with no shear.
Keeping an eye on it.
2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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REDHurricane
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GCANE wrote:Models aren't picking up on this but to me looks interesting.
Deep in the ITCZ at about 45W, south of 10N.
Heavy convection with no shear.
Keeping an eye on it.
It does look pretty good at the moment, though the GFS/Euro/ICON all show this system getting pushed into South America after making an attempt to gradually close off over the next 24-36 hours. Maybe it'll be worth watching as the associated energy moves into the EPac and possibly tries to do something there, but it won't have a chance to develop in the Atlantic unless we see some crazy intensification over the next ~12 hours or so
Last edited by REDHurricane on Thu Aug 28, 2025 1:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Stratton23
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
That area probably wont have enough time to do anything, should just crash into SA within the next 24 hours
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floridasun
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
high to north will pull it west into south america
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Tue’s (8/26/25) Euro Weeklies ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 11.3 (0.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)
Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 17 (1.1)
22-28: 20 (1.4)
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 11.3 (0.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)
Today’s (8/28/25) EW ACE progs are less active weeks 2-4 vs the Tue run but still show the same pattern of a relatively quiet first half of Sept and a much more active 2nd half somewhat similar to Sept of 2024:
1-7: 4.5 (0.3)
8-14: 8 (0.5)
15-21: 17 (1.1)
22-28: 20 (1.4)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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DunedinDave
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Crazy we are going into peak season and it will be relatively quiet.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
DunedinDave wrote:Crazy we are going into peak season and it will be relatively quiet.
Regarding the current active era despite no El Niño:
-In 2024, there were 0 TCs during the 19 days 8/21-9/8.
-In 2022, there were 0 TCs in August.
-In 2016, there were 0 TCs Sep 4-11 and 0 H Sep 3-28.
-In 2013, there was no H til 9/11.
-In 2001, there was no H til 9/8.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TomballEd
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I don't think the lemon with its own thread will ever threaten the Caribbean or CONUS.
Probably not a significant US threat but there is some Euro family support for the unseasonably cool cold front maybe sparking a TC. A few of the ensembles becoming fairly strong TS's.
Op GFS and 6Z Euro fail to develop anything, but the Euro sort of tries.
Probably not a significant US threat but there is some Euro family support for the unseasonably cool cold front maybe sparking a TC. A few of the ensembles becoming fairly strong TS's.
Op GFS and 6Z Euro fail to develop anything, but the Euro sort of tries.
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Stratton23
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
12z Euro comes to life in the atlantic, 3-4 areas to watch on this run, I expect models to really light up once we start that 2nd week of September and beyond, i suspect we will be tracking several areas to watch
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