2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS Ensembles below... The Euro ensembles shows this also, but not as many members, but the general trend is something moves off South Carolina, loops over Florida then attempts to get going in the Gulf, disorganized, but something to monitor.

[cajungal]

Even if disorganized would mean a ton of rain for me in SE Louisiana. And Saturday the 26th is my son’s pool birthday party. Last year we only got an hour of pool time for his party because of weather and was hoping to have a better outcome this year especially with family coming from out of town.

[Pas_Bon]

Even if disorganized would mean a ton of rain for me in SE Louisiana. And Saturday the 26th is my son’s pool birthday party. Last year we only got an hour of pool time for his party because of weather and was hoping to have a better outcome this year especially with family coming from out of town.

The potential storm in question denotes Sat 7/18 as landfall in modeling, though.

Happy early birthday to your son.

[hohnywx]

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1943995350672716193

[cajungal]

Even if disorganized would mean a ton of rain for me in SE Louisiana. And Saturday the 26th is my son’s pool birthday party. Last year we only got an hour of pool time for his party because of weather and was hoping to have a better outcome this year especially with family coming from out of town.

The potential storm in question denotes Sat 7/18 as landfall in modeling, though.

Happy early birthday to your son.

Thank you his real birthday is August 4th but always have to have his party the last Saturday in July before the pool closes because lifeguards go back to school

[cajungal]

Even if disorganized would mean a ton of rain for me in SE Louisiana. And Saturday the 26th is my son’s pool birthday party. Last year we only got an hour of pool time for his party because of weather and was hoping to have a better outcome this year especially with family coming from out of town.

The potential storm in question denotes Sat 7/18 as landfall in modeling, though.

And forgot to add that July 18th wouldn’t be good for me either as will be in Navarre beach. Can’t win

Happy early birthday to your son.

[Steve]

Mesoscales at 12 show a spin crossing the peninsula in the 3 1/2 day range.

12km NAM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=84

At 250 you can see an upper spin in the western gulf and a blocking high in the Southeast flow at that point is toward SWLA and the Triangle.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=84

[Steve]

You can see it up at 18,000 feet but this is probably a preceding upper low

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71212&fh=5

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=66

12z ICON ends with a wrapping up system hitting the triangle but coming in slowly with weak steering currents at 180 hours. That’s 7 1/2 days so valid next Saturday.

500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=66

MSLP
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71212&fh=6

Takes it down to 1004. No real MJO support in the models for anything strong. See what the rest of the globals do as they run.

[Stormlover70]

Models are really not excited

[Stratton23]

Last nights UKMET shows a weak surface low forming, ICON now showing developing, these two in my opinion are big models to watch as they both have been very good the last couple of hurricane seasons, if they show development, its definitely worth keeping a closer eye on