2024 Global ACE: NH - 453.9 / NATL - 161.6 / EPAC - 82.0 / WPAC - 204.0 / NIO - 6.3

[kevin]

Also some interesting ACE statistics since 2024 now has season totals of 17/11/5.

*There are 15 seasons with 17 named storms or more. Excluding 2024, 8 out of the 16 remaining seasons were hyperactive (50%).
*There are 9 seasons with 11 hurricanes or more. Excluding 2024, every single one of the 10 remaining seasons was hyperactive (100%). If 2024 somehow does not reach the hyperactive ACE value, it would thus be a unique situation for a season with this many hurricanes.
*There are 17 seasons with 5 major hurricanes or more. Excluding 2024, 13 out of the 16 remaining seasons were hyperactive (81%).

[kevin]

The current NHC advisory results in 10.0 ACE in the upcoming 120 hours for Rafael. Current seasonal ACE is 152.8, so this would result in 162.8 ACE.

[KWT]

Looking increasingly likely Rafael will get us to hyperactive on its own, but even if it ends up just shy I suspect there will br several post season changes (Oscar and Patty both will be extended imo and there are several that will be upped by at least 5kts, Oscar could well ve bumped 10-15kts comfortably.

Amazing to likely reach hyperactive from where we were in mid September 24.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like this season will end up hyperactive after all.

[WalterWhite]

It is official; we are hyperactive.

[Hurricane2022]

WE DID IT JOEEEEAAAAAAAA

[MarioProtVI]

WE DID IT JOEEEEAAAAAAAA
https://imageshack.com/i/poxK0rGgj

Probably the best comeback any season I’ve tracked (except 2020) has had after everyone wrote hyperactivity off in mid-September during/after Gordon. Wow

[cycloneye]

Yes!!

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1855741598409117977



 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1855742076442615941

[Teban54]

How things changed after Beryl.

https://i.imgur.com/GX1wzjp.jpeg

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... -hurricane

 https://x.com/IPTCWCDirector/status/1835767165313773702

How it started:



How it's going: (This is as of 10/14 and had the outdated hyperactivity threshold of 165 ACE, so the hyperactive chance should be 100% now)

[kevin]

I know this is highly questionable, but if the 06z GFS run actually verifies we'd have one of the craziest late-season storms ever, also in terms of ACE. I used the Dvorak technique to convert the pressure at every 6 hour interval to wind speed for future-Sara and then this is what I get. The total ACE of this system would be a whopping 30.2, which would raise the seasonal ACE to 190.

Timestamp (hr) / Wind speed (kt)
48 / 35 - TS
54 / 35
60 / 40
66 / 45
72 / 50
78 / 60
84 / 65 - C1
90 / 70
96 / 85 - C2
102 / 100 - C3
108 / 110
114 / 115 - C4
120 / 120
126 / 125
132 / 130
138 / 130
144 / 130
150 / 135
156 / 130
162 / 125
168 / 125
174 / 120 - Cuba landfall as a low-end cat 4
180 / 110
186 / 105
192 / 105
198 / 100
204 / 95 - US landfall as a high-end cat 2
210 / 90
216 / 75
222 / 60
228 / 50
234 / 45
240 / 40 - afterwards downgraded to a TD

[HurricaneRyan]

Sara obviously won't be that much in ACE compared to what models were showing, but she still brought us to hyperactive officially

[dexterlabio]

WPAC is at 199, about to cross 200 as per CSU website