ljmac75 wrote:Travorum wrote:An entirely different question is what the NHC will place Milton's pressure at in the TCR. In this regard Rita's TCR provides a remarkably good analogue. With Rita, recon measured via dropsonde 899mb w/32kt winds at 2309z 21 September, almost exactly similar to Milton's peak. There was then a six hour gap in recon before the next flight found 898mb at 0538z and 899mb at 0715z 22 September. Based on this Rita's intensity was estimated as 895mb at the non-synoptic point of 03z 22 September. Rita has a bit stronger of a claim to a peak lower than recon measured given that sub-900mb pressures were measured on both sides of a recon gap, but I would think that given Milton's rate of pressure change on either end of its recon gap will be sufficient for the NHC to lower Milton's central pressure a few mb in the TCR. Given that the NHC is unlikely to break Rita's record of lowest Gulf pressure without more conclusive evidence than Rita itself had, my guess is that the NHC puts Milton's pressure at 895mb in the TCR.
Is the 1935 Labor Day storm not considered for the gulf record? Pressure would still have probably been under 895mb when the center moved back over water past the keys.
I did check this before I made the original post as the 1935 Labor Day storm peaked at 892mb as measured at Craig Key (between Long Key and Lower Matecumbe Key), more intense than Rita by 3mb. It turns out that this point is not in the Gulf as defined by the International Hydrographic Organization, which identifies the southeast boundary of the Gulf as follows:
A line joining Cape Catoche Light (21°37′N 87°04′W) with the Light on Cape San Antonio in Cuba, through this island to the meridian of 83°W and to the Northward along this meridian to the latitude of the South point of the Dry Tortugas (24°35'N), along this parallel Eastward to Rebecca Shoal (82°35'W) thence through the shoals and Florida Keys to the mainland at the eastern end of Florida Bay and all the narrow waters between the Dry Tortugas and the mainland being considered to be within the Gulf.
This excludes the the Florida Keys and Craig Key specifically from the formal definition of the Gulf by a matter of miles. The 1935 hurricane may well have been below 895mb in the Gulf proper just a few hours after making landfall in the keys: HURDAT marks the landfall at 02z at 892mb/160kts, and the 06z synoptic point 4 hours later is technically in the Gulf and is still held at 160kts but no pressure is associated with this synoptic point. Unfortunately the next point that has a pressure associated with it is 44 hours after the 02z landfall in the keys, at 22z the next day in the big bend (near Steinhatchee) with a pressure of 965mb. Therefore, according to official records, the 1935 Labor Day hurricane was never below 895mb in the Gulf proper and as such Rita holds the Gulf minimum pressure record at 895mb. In actuality it is entirely possible (and I would even say likely given reasonable extrapolation past landfall in the keys) that the 1935 hurricane beat this record, but is also entirely unprovable at this current point in time.
