Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[beachnut]

A reminder as we're discussing landfall possibilities. On shore flow (SW winds) will occur south of the center with offshore winds north of it. So if the storm hits Sarasota, all surge will be from that point south along the west coast. Interesting that I showed NAVGEM and HAFs with a strong hurricane in the Gulf yesterday and it seems the GFS and Euro have caught up to them today.

Exactly! That's why the Everglades would be a better landfall spot Seriously though, what I really hope for is a ragged mess that doesn't even become a TD.

[johngaltfla]

Local mets projecting over 5" of rain before the storm gets near us.

A direct hit or near hit in Sarasota or Manatee with over 10" of rain will be a disaster.

Is flooding from rain a big issue in your area or is it surge that’s the issue?
I’m not challenging you here. I live in Palm Beach County and while 10” of rain would cause localized flooding here, it doesn’t take rivers/lakes/bodies over water over their banks.
Is it different on the west coast where rain causes a disaster or is it surge?

Actually, it's one of those once in a century events that are hard to believe. I'm inland now, away from the coast. The surge did tremendous damage to Manasota, Siesta, Lido, Longboat Keys plus Anna Maria island and it only gets worse the further north you go.

Debby dumped over 20" of rain on us in addition to an excessive rainy season causing massive flooding all over our area. Our aquifers are at extreme highs, creeks and rivers above flood stage still as afternoon and weekend long showers have only added to the total. Year to date we've had 55.07" of rain and localized some areas a bit more. So we're getting the worst of all worlds.

[toad strangler]

Yikes
 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1842319334586110330

[beachnut]

Local mets projecting over 5" of rain before the storm gets near us.

A direct hit or near hit in Sarasota or Manatee with over 10" of rain will be a disaster.

Is flooding from rain a big issue in your area or is it surge that’s the issue?
I’m not challenging you here. I live in Palm Beach County and while 10” of rain would cause localized flooding here, it doesn’t take rivers/lakes/bodies over water over their banks.
Is it different on the west coast where rain causes a disaster or is it surge?

It can be both. From Sarasota to Ft Myers you have the Manatee, Myakka, Peace, and Caloosahatchee Rivers that can be bank crested or surged into. The Myakka River is particularly troublesome.

[fci]

For those saying it would be hard to get a storm in South FL based on the angle of approach, I remind you that in 2005 Wilma hit South FL from the Yucatan Peninsula.

This is likely to cut east north of the Yucatan, they're not going to be in the same position.

Path depends on where the cold front is.

[Weatherboy1]

We sure there’s nothing brewing under that big blowup of convection in the Bay of Campeche already? Looks interesting on both visible and IR satellite

[chaser1]

Local mets projecting over 5" of rain before the storm gets near us.

A direct hit or near hit in Sarasota or Manatee with over 10" of rain will be a disaster.

Is flooding from rain a big issue in your area or is it surge that’s the issue?
I’m not challenging you here. I live in Palm Beach County and while 10” of rain would cause localized flooding here, it doesn’t take rivers/lakes/bodies over water over their banks.
Is it different on the west coast where rain causes a disaster or is it surge?

Actually, it's one of those once in a century events that are hard to believe. I'm inland now, away from the coast. The surge did tremendous damage to Manasota, Siesta, Lido, Longboat Keys plus Anna Maria island and it only gets worse the further north you go.

Debby dumped over 20" of rain on us in addition to an excessive rainy season causing massive flooding all over our area. Our aquifers are at extreme highs, creeks and rivers above flood stage still as afternoon and weekend long showers have only added to the total. Year to date we've had 55.07" of rain and localized some areas a bit more. So we're getting the worst of all worlds.

Any idea how much beach erosion occured on Manasota Key? I've seen a few pics showing the some of the asphalt shoreline road broken up & washed out on the north side of the Key. I'm particularly curious about the massive beach replenishment that was finished last year (or year prior?). Blind Pass & Manasota beaches have long been my favorite places to hunt for sharks teeth. I have no idea what shape they're in now

[grapealcoholic]

We sure there’s nothing brewing under that big blowup of convection in the Bay of Campeche already? Looks interesting on both visible and IR satellite

Whatever it is it’s extremely Tight

[cycloneye]

Here comes 92L.

Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or
two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[wzrgirl1]

Good move by you! I used to live in Pembroke Shores on a large lake and I wouldn't have lived there without Flood insurance!

My first home was in Pembroke Shores! It was the townhomes when you first drive into the complex on the right. I loved living there it just became too small for my household. Now I am in Silver Lakes.

Yep, very nice homes further west in the Silver Lakes area. It's been at least 8 years since moving from there. Isn't Chappel Trails even further west than you? I thought that I recalled them having some minor flooding issues years back? Anyway, better safe than sorry (especially since it looks like a pile of rain may be heading our way).

Yes Chapel Trail is about a mile west of me and yes they do flood on occasion. Wishing you safety in the coming days. Hopefully nothing major comes to either of us from this system.

[grapealcoholic]

Yep seems NHC is also curious about that convection in BOC.

Tons of heat being released

[chaser1]

We sure there’s nothing brewing under that big blowup of convection in the Bay of Campeche already? Looks interesting on both visible and IR satellite

Well we'll, perhaps you're right I hadn't taken a close look at it since before noon but looking closely, I do finally see some low to mid level clouds beginning to arc real close to the eastern edge (if not under) of that convection at about 20.5 N & 95 W. Whether it's transitory or the genesis of some rotation, I guess we'll see relatively soon.

[chaser1]

Yep seems NHC is also curious about that convection in BOC.

Tons of heat being released

Yeah, I just caught up with the last few posts and saw that 30/70! That certainly got bumped up AND that TWO seemed to drop a bit early too? No doubt the last few visible satellite frames probably got someone's attention there.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, what we all were waiting for is now up. Yes, 92L is up so go here to continue the discussions.