How many named storms will form in October?

[cycloneye]

Those who have not voted yet have until 11:28 PM EDT when it closes for voting.

[Pasmorade]

Probably bullish, but I choose seven. All that would really need to occur is the two AOIs developing and some later tropical waves and/or other disturbances. Seeing as conditions are anonymously warm, I don't see how that couldn't occur.

[Coolcruiseman]

My amateur view is at some point the conditions are going to change and when they do the Atlantic basin is a bath tub.

Just a gut feeling.

[Teban54]

The interesting question is what will happen when the MJO leaves. It's currently in Phase 1 now and will move to Phase 2 in a few days, which helped Kirk form and will likely help 91L. However, current forecasts put the MJO in Phase 4/5 by mid-October.

On one hand, since earlier parts of 2024 struggled without help from MJO (and an earlier CCKW produced Francine and Gordon, which were less than expected during peak season), one may think that unfavorable MJO periods will only be worse with more hostile climo. On the other hand, 2024 clearly gives zero regard to climo, and it appears that the typical negative factors limiting late-season activity are currently not applying to Kirk and 91L.

[cycloneye]

Poll has closed for voting. Options three and four ended tied with 16 votes each. The none will form option had 10 votes.