2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[CyclonicFury]

Somewhat surprisingly for a season of this setup, the North Atlantic will likely have its latest start since 2014. It appears very unlikely we will see any development for the rest of May, and the start of June is probably too early as well.

I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.

[NotSparta]

Somewhat surprisingly for a season of this setup, the North Atlantic will likely have its latest start since 2014. It appears very unlikely we will see any development for the rest of May, and the start of June is probably too early as well.

I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.

The cooler subtropics are hurting a lot of the usual early activity we've gotten accustomed to

The Atlantic right now:

[Category5Kaiju]

Somewhat surprisingly for a season of this setup, the North Atlantic will likely have its latest start since 2014. It appears very unlikely we will see any development for the rest of May, and the start of June is probably too early as well.

I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.

The cooler subtropics are hurting a lot of the usual early activity we've gotten accustomed to

The Atlantic right now:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7d/DJ_Khaled_Suffering_from_Success.jpg

Hmm, maybe the Atlantic might be "sacrificing" subtropical slop with more robust deep tropical activity in the coming months?

Also as a tangent, 2024 is officially the most active tornado season since 2017. Yup, that 2017.

[AnnularCane]

Are we still looking at high numbers even without the usual amount of subtropical development?

[Stratton23]

Oh absolutely, lack of subtropical development right now doesnt mean forecast numbers will go down, alot of very busy seasons tend to start off pretty slow

[skyline385]

Somewhat surprisingly for a season of this setup, the North Atlantic will likely have its latest start since 2014. It appears very unlikely we will see any development for the rest of May, and the start of June is probably too early as well.

I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.

As others have said, the cooler subtropics are preventing early season activity and almost all of the +AMO hyperactive years have had slower starts because of this. Additionally, Blake also said a few days back that "early season named storm days before 1 August in the deep tropics east of 75W" is the only statistic which correlates to seasonal activity, nothing else has a clear direct relation.

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1792974186295730433

[skyline385]

Are we still looking at high numbers even without the usual amount of subtropical development?

2005 kicked off mid June and still got 28/15/7

With the La Nina strengthening in the winter and record warm temps in the Caribbean, i fully expect it to be a long drawn out season

[aspen]

Somewhat surprisingly for a season of this setup, the North Atlantic will likely have its latest start since 2014. It appears very unlikely we will see any development for the rest of May, and the start of June is probably too early as well.

I do think there's a very good chance June has a storm or two, though. It's not too surprising we'll probably go all of May without a storm to be honest; first year Niña seasons coming off a significant Niño often start relatively slow and tend to be more backloaded.

The cooler subtropics are hurting a lot of the usual early activity we've gotten accustomed to

The Atlantic right now:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7d/DJ_Khaled_Suffering_from_Success.jpg

So possibly similar to 2010, which didn’t have any NS until the end of June when Alex became a borderline major in the BoC. Maybe we might get a rare strong June storm towards the end of the month as well with how insanely warm the Atlantic is, but that all depends on how favorable other factors are by then.

[IsabelaWeather]

Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.

[MetroMike]

Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.

I'm just glad the forum is not canceled. Had no idea there was maintanence going on today on the site.

[AnnularCane]

Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.

I'm just glad the forum is not canceled. Had no idea there was maintanence going on today on the site.

I think the server just went down from what I know.

[Stratton23]

Man the western caribbean and gulf continue to warm up even more, its insane to see

[SteveM]

Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.

Who is canceling the season?

[skyline385]

Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.

But we aren't talking about cancelling the season though, the discussion was whether we will reach large NS count because of lack of early season sub tropical spam which is a legit question in my opinion. It doesn't have anything to do with ACE or impacts from the season. I personally think we will reach a high NS count but there are mets who think otherwise:

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1792962571441774639

[Category5Kaiju]

Are we cancelling the season before it begins now? Its just crazy we are talking about this season lagging behind before the official start of the season. If we get nothing before Aug 1, that doesnt mean it wont have high ACE or not be impactful.

I don't think anybody's canceling the season this early, I think it's just some curiosity as to why the season is not producing a May storm (or doesn't seem to be producing an early June one, according to models).

It's definitely a departure from the norm in recent years; however, the ominous thing about this is that quite a few of the active blockbuster seasons in history (1926, 1950, 1961, 1996, 1998, and 2004 as the primary examples, with 2010 included based on activity alone) didn't see their first named storm until after June 15, and in some cases not until July and August. There are many more historic seasons such as 2008 that featured weak, short-lived systems early and then didn't really pick up until July.

I think there are 2 key things to remember here.

1. When exactly the first named storm forms doesn't necessarily have good correlation with ACE and overall activity levels. Especially during a La Nina year, which tends to feature activity going well into October and November.

2. The fact that we're not getting early season activity might have to do with the El Nino we were just in, but it could also very well be a result of the cooler subtropics being hostile for early season spinups. This isn't necessarily a good thing because that basically signifies that the deep tropics are more than primed for activity had it not been for the typical early-season wind shear.

Watch as Alberto becomes a Category 5 Caribbean cruiser during early July. I'm sure the general attitude will drastically change.

[AnnularCane]

Yeah...it was just an innocent question that came to mind. It wasn't even because of the lack of a May storm.

[Cpv17]

Man the western caribbean and gulf continue to warm up even more, its insane to see

So are the subtropics.

[skyline385]

Man the western caribbean and gulf continue to warm up even more, its insane to see

So are the subtropics.

There has certainly been some very notable warming of the subtropics in the last 15 days, the classical +AMO look is gone again.

[Woofde]

Man the western caribbean and gulf continue to warm up even more, its insane to see

So are the subtropics.

There has certainly been some very notable warming of the subtropics in the last 15 days, the classical +AMO look is gone again.

It's almost expected just based on recent seasons. We haven't really had a season with cool subtropics by peak season in recent memory.

For example 2017 and 2020 both played out this exact way. Both had large cool patches around this same time, but by August they warmed significantly.

[WeatherBoy2000]

So are the subtropics.

There has certainly been some very notable warming of the subtropics in the last 15 days, the classical +AMO look is gone again.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/L4jTbtG6/image.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/bw5kJr4B/image.png [/url]

It's almost expected just based on recent seasons. We haven't really had a season with cool subtropics by peak season in recent memory.

For example 2017 and 2020 both played out this exact way. Both had large cool patches around this same time, but by August they warmed significantly.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240527/00773bb5ee877206995e9f7cf9218004.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240527/3f926f937f879dc03ab995bd901e664c.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240527/ed272918c2b7de1891bee97c77f7aa6b.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240527/abce34f487cff56f5ea4e5356099dfa9.jpg

Goes back even further than 2017/2020, same thing happened in 2005 and 2010 as well:

2005:





2010: