Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU June forecast=23/11/5

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skyline385
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic

#181 Postby skyline385 » Thu May 23, 2024 9:12 am

NOAA forecast

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

2010 was highest previously with 14-23 NS, 8-14 H & 3-7 M and 155-270% ACE

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The system upgrades have me interested

NOAA will upgrade its observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. These projects will provide more observations of the ocean and atmosphere in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, on the U.S. East Coast and in the tropical Atlantic.

- NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center recently upgraded many coastal weather buoys in the tropical western Atlantic and Caribbean to include time of occurrence and measurements of one-minute wind speed and direction, 5-second peak wind gust and direction and lowest 1-minute barometric pressure to support tropical cyclone forecasting.
- New this year, NOAA will gather additional observations using Directional Wave Spectra Drifters (DWSDs), deployed from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft and in the vicinity of Saildrones, uncrewed surface vehicles which will be deployed at the start of the hurricane season, providing one-minute data in real time. 11-12 Saildrones are planned for deployment in 2024.
Starting in June, dozens of observational underwater gliders are planned to deploy in waters off the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the eastern U.S. coast. Additionally, a new lightweight dropsonde called Streamsonde will be deployed into developing tropical storms, collecting multiple real-time observations to collect valuable wind data.
- The CHAOS (Coordinated Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Sampling) research experiment aims to improve the understanding of air-sea interactions, providing sustained monitoring of key ocean features.
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu May 23, 2024 9:36 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic

#182 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 23, 2024 9:17 am

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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: NOAA=17-25 named storms / 8-13 hurricane / 4-7 majors / ACE 150-245%

#183 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 23, 2024 9:28 am

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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA up on May 23 at 10 AM EDT

#184 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu May 23, 2024 9:30 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:I'm expecting a NS range that goes into the 20s, a H range that goes into the 10s, and a MH range that includes 6 and 7 as possibilities. :lol:


Looks like this prediction stands :lol: :eek:
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: NOAA=17-25 named storms / 8-13 hurricane / 4-7 majors / ACE 150-245%

#185 Postby FireRat » Thu May 23, 2024 11:49 am

2024 is going to be a dragon to contend with, jebus! :eek:

Rightfully so, NOAA went with 17-25, up to 13 H & 7 M...

proceeding to pick up my jaw off the floor...
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic: NOAA=17-25 named storms / 8-13 hurricane / 4-7 majors / ACE 150-245%

#186 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 23, 2024 12:14 pm

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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA up on May 23 at 10 AM EDT

#187 Postby chaser1 » Thu May 23, 2024 12:17 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:I'm expecting a NS range that goes into the 20s, a H range that goes into the 10s, and a MH range that includes 6 and 7 as possibilities. :lol:


Looks like this prediction stands :lol: :eek:


Just to point out, the same applies to nearly 50% of the Storm2K Poll participant predictions as well :wink:
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#188 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 30, 2024 7:55 am

New TSR Numbers for June Dr.Adam forecasting one heck of yr with 6 majors and 226 ace. They are usually very conservative so this is pretty wild. :eek:

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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR new forecast=24/12/6

#189 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 30, 2024 8:35 am

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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR new forecast=24/12/6 ACE: 226

#190 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu May 30, 2024 10:04 am

When the next CSU forecast will come out?
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR new forecast=24/12/6 ACE: 226

#191 Postby Beef Stew » Thu May 30, 2024 10:25 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:When the next CSU forecast will come out?


I believe June 11th.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU update on June 11

#192 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jun 01, 2024 12:42 am

:notworthy:
Just my own opinion, but I feel that TheAustinMan's fantastic final write-up for the S2K 111 Member Collective 2024 Forecast Poll should be added to this Expert Forecast thread (either as a "sticky" at the beginning page, or inserted on this date). If for no other reason so that discussion and/or comparison to expert Forecasts, to the S2K 2024 Pole Forecast may be considered. The other reason being that the S2K Pole thread has now been "locked" thus eliminating any further conversation regarding the tabulated results or added insights to the remarkable and intriguing results and historical S2K Poll results.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU update on June 11

#193 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 01, 2024 5:53 am

chaser1 wrote::notworthy:
Just my own opinion, but I feel that TheAustinMan's fantastic final write-up for the S2K 111 Member Collective 2024 Forecast Poll should be added to this Expert Forecast thread (either as a "sticky" at the beginning page, or inserted on this date). If for no other reason so that discussion and/or comparison to expert Forecasts, to the S2K 2024 Pole Forecast may be considered. The other reason being that the S2K Pole thread has now been "locked" thus eliminating any further conversation regarding the tabulated results or added insights to the remarkable and intriguing results and historical S2K Poll results.


Made a new sticky thread for the final stats of the poll and will be open for the members to make comments. Thanks for the suggestion.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 2#p3066052
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU update on June 11

#194 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 10, 2024 10:58 am

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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU update tommorow at 11 AM EDT

#195 Postby ljmac75 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:39 pm

Think CSU will increase, decrease, or go with the same for the forecast? I'll guess unchanged, give or take 1 hurricane.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU update tommorow at 11 AM EDT

#196 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jun 10, 2024 10:27 pm

ljmac75 wrote:Think CSU will increase, decrease, or go with the same for the forecast? I'll guess unchanged, give or take 1 hurricane.


Agreed, mostly unchanged is my thought. Perhaps a slight downward adjustment to total number of TS due to possible later start of LaNina. Otherwise, the only other thought I had was that CSU might increase their ACE forecast for "West of 60W". We'll see....
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU update at 6/11/24

#197 Postby lsuhurricane » Tue Jun 11, 2024 9:45 am

CSU forecast remained completely unchanged.

23/11/5

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-06.pdf
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU June forecast=23/11/5

#198 Postby kevin » Tue Jun 11, 2024 11:10 am

CSU June analogs: 1878, 1926, 1998, 2005, 2010, 2020.

Note: these are all hyperactive seasons.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU June forecast=23/11/5

#199 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jun 11, 2024 6:33 pm

kevin wrote:CSU June analogs: 1878, 1926, 1998, 2005, 2010, 2020.

Note: these are all hyperactive seasons.


2005 is a big new addition to the June analogs… Wow
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