2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[zzzh]

He really does such a great job presenting and explaining things, clear and concise. I especially found the wind shear correlation map interesting. I was curious how the Atlantic is doing so far. It looks like we are right on track climatologically speaking.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240520/e5cf9d6fe667b3687d190186f43b9133.gif https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240520/5adf4144b8631ecdd2f8a833b636498f.gif

I'd recommend against using that product. It included regions like south America and Africa in there, which can't represent the shear magnitude in the MDR.

[LarryWx]

In fact, almost the whole Caribbean Sea is very warm with another hot spot near the Lesser Antilles and Eastern Caribbean.


https://i.imgur.com/kFfIScf.png

Crazy to see +30 C water patches starting to appear (see just south of Cuba's western tip). Theoretically, if there was no wind shear or dry air and if there was a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, it could theoretically reach Cat 4 strength.

I posted this a few days ago but there is actually a pretty decent pool of 30.5C near Cuba's Western tip and in the center of that, a small 31C pool has recently emerged.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/N0nb7McG/oisst-1d-gulf-2024051800.png [/url]

Also, the Key West buoy, which is legit as it is in deep water, had a 3-4 day period May ~15-18 averaging 30.5C and today it rose to ~31C! Watch out for coral bleaching again. That’s insanely hot for mid-May though 2023 average for May 19 reached 30.5C and didn’t go lower til August with the highest daily avg reaching the mid 33s on 8/10/23! There was one reading right at 34.0C/93.2F on 8/10/23!

[Woofde]

He really does such a great job presenting and explaining things, clear and concise. I especially found the wind shear correlation map interesting. I was curious how the Atlantic is doing so far. It looks like we are right on track climatologically speaking.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240520/e5cf9d6fe667b3687d190186f43b9133.gif https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240520/5adf4144b8631ecdd2f8a833b636498f.gif

I'd recommend against using that product. It included regions like south America and Africa in there, which can't represent the shear magnitude in the MDR.

Is there another similar product that doesn't have such biases?

[cycloneye]

The warming is like August 10th.

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1792535680805171454

[Pas_Bon]

The warming is like August 10th.

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1792535680805171454

The obvious concern regarding cyclogenesis and RI fuel these hot waters present notwithstanding, I'm really concerned about the coral reefs in the Caribbean, GOM, and tropical Atlantic.

[skyline385]

The warming is like August 10th.

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1792535680805171454

The obvious concern regarding cyclogenesis and RI fuel these hot waters present notwithstanding, I'm really concerned about the coral reefs in the Caribbean, GOM, and tropical Atlantic.

The plot here is for OHC though not SST. OHCs don't directly influence TCG or RI but can be a factor where too much OHC reduces the effect of upwelling and hence reducing the effect of upwelling for slow moving systems. High OHC also reduces the effect of upwelling from trade winds as the surface water just gets replaced by more warm water from underneath.

[Woofde]

The warming is like August 10th.

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1792535680805171454

The obvious concern regarding cyclogenesis and RI fuel these hot waters present notwithstanding, I'm really concerned about the coral reefs in the Caribbean, GOM, and tropical Atlantic.

The plot here is for OHC though not SST. OHCs don't directly influence TCG or RI but can be a factor where too much OHC reduces the effect of upwelling and hence reducing the effect of upwelling for slow moving systems.

OHC is especially important for stronger systems right? If I remember correctly, they interact much deeper in the water column than weaker systems. I would imagine it increases the potential top end of the intensity spectrum.

[Category5Kaiju]

The obvious concern regarding cyclogenesis and RI fuel these hot waters present notwithstanding, I'm really concerned about the coral reefs in the Caribbean, GOM, and tropical Atlantic.

The plot here is for OHC though not SST. OHCs don't directly influence TCG or RI but can be a factor where too much OHC reduces the effect of upwelling and hence reducing the effect of upwelling for slow moving systems.

OHC is especially important for stronger systems right? If I remember correctly, they interact much deeper in the water column than weaker systems. I would imagine it increases the potential top end of the intensity spectrum.

Yes indeed. Part of the reason why Dorian, for example, was able to remain at Cat 5 strength while stalling for several days because the UOHC near the Bahamas was very high.

[skyline385]

The obvious concern regarding cyclogenesis and RI fuel these hot waters present notwithstanding, I'm really concerned about the coral reefs in the Caribbean, GOM, and tropical Atlantic.

The plot here is for OHC though not SST. OHCs don't directly influence TCG or RI but can be a factor where too much OHC reduces the effect of upwelling and hence reducing the effect of upwelling for slow moving systems.

OHC is especially important for stronger systems right? If I remember correctly, they interact much deeper in the water column than weaker systems. I would imagine it increases the potential top end of the intensity spectrum.

There isn't any special interaction with deeper waters, its all about how much water is being upwelled. Stronger systems have stronger winds and upwell more water but if they are moving fast, its not much of a factor. Lee travelled over modest OHC (60-80 KJ/sq.cm) and still explosively blew up to a C5 (third fastest to get to C5 in the NATL). Dorian is an example on the other spectrum where it pretty much stalled and the OHC helped sustain it but again that was because it stalled. It also depends on the size of the system, Dorian was a small system with a small radius of the most extreme winds so that also played into how much water was being upwelled. Remember Dorian did gradually start to weaken once it stalled over the Bahamas as the OHC was being depleted. It was also pretty much parked over the Gulf stream so that played a factor in sustaining it as well. Any system moving at a decent pace generally can work with even the most modest OHC as long as other conditions are favourable.

[cycloneye]

As he says, Ouch.

 https://x.com/catinsight/status/1792565889906188535

[skyline385]

Kinda funny how 1983 shows up again after that discussion about severe wx in Houston and Hurricane Alicia few days ago. But no, I don't believe we are heading for a 1983 repeat. It flipped to a -AMO during the hurricane season and good luck getting that to happen this season.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1792569380183683201

[Category5Kaiju]

Kinda funny how 1983 shows up again after that discussion about severe wx in Houston and Hurricane Alicia few days ago. But no, I don't believe we are heading for a 1983 repeat. It flipped to a -AMO during the hurricane season and good luck getting that to happen this season.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1792569380183683201

That might change toward the end of this month as some models show a typhoon forming. Also what's interesting is the 1983 typhoon and EPAC hurricane seasons ended up being pretty active. I'm not sure if that's going to happen this year though.

[JetFuel_SE]

Kinda funny how 1983 shows up again after that discussion about severe wx in Houston and Hurricane Alicia few days ago. But no, I don't believe we are heading for a 1983 repeat. It flipped to a -AMO during the hurricane season and good luck getting that to happen this season.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1792569380183683201

That might change toward the end of this month as some models show a typhoon forming. Also what's interesting is the 1983 typhoon and EPAC hurricane seasons ended up being pretty active. I'm not sure if that's going to happen this year though.

If we somehow flip to a strong -AMO, I'm eating my mousepad live on stream.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at things, we may not have a tropical cyclone until the mid to late June period which lines up with the CCKW and MJO unless we get some extratropical to tropical transition

By the way a lot of very active seasons didn’t get going until late June and 2004 didn’t really start until the first of August

I could just imagine the season cancel post today if we had a first half like 2004 post like these

It’s late July and nothing has formed
Cancel the season, no June or July systems
This season is boring
The Atlantic is void of convection

And we know that is one of the most active seasons on record in terms of ACE

[skyline385]

Looking at things, we may not have a tropical cyclone until the mid to late June period which lines up with the CCKW and MJO unless we get some extratropical to tropical transition

By the way a lot of very active seasons didn’t get going until late June and 2004 didn’t really start until the first of August

I could just imagine the season cancel post today if we had a first half like 2004 post like these

It’s late July and nothing has formed
Cancel the season, no June or July systems
This season is boring
The Atlantic is void of convection

And we know that is one of the most active seasons on record in terms of ACE

Hold on, people are talking about season cancel in mid-May lol?

[Patrick99]

Crazy to see +30 C water patches starting to appear (see just south of Cuba's western tip). Theoretically, if there was no wind shear or dry air and if there was a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, it could theoretically reach Cat 4 strength.

Geez, I wonder what the shallow waters of Florida Bay are going to be like in July. Probably all over 90 degrees.

I posted this a few days ago but there is actually a pretty decent pool of 30.5C near Cuba's Western tip and in the center of that, a small 31C pool has recently emerged.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/N0nb7McG/oisst-1d-gulf-2024051800.png [/url]

Also, the Key West buoy, which is legit as it is in deep water, had a 3-4 day period May ~15-18 averaging 30.5C and today it rose to ~31C! Watch out for coral bleaching again. That’s insanely hot for mid-May though 2023 average for May 19 reached 30.5C and didn’t go lower til August with the highest daily avg reaching the mid 33s on 8/10/23! There was one reading right at 34.0C/93.2F on 8/10/23!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

He really does such a great job presenting and explaining things, clear and concise. I especially found the wind shear correlation map interesting. I was curious how the Atlantic is doing so far. It looks like we are right on track climatologically speaking.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240520/e5cf9d6fe667b3687d190186f43b9133.gif https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240520/5adf4144b8631ecdd2f8a833b636498f.gif

https://i.imgur.com/InQdSJI.gif
I'd recommend against using that product. It included regions like south America and Africa in there, which can't represent the shear magnitude in the MDR.

Is there another similar product that doesn't have such biases?

Wondering about this too. Would be nice. If my coding skills weren't so rudimentary (and if I simply weren't so lazy) I probably could throw something together.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at things, we may not have a tropical cyclone until the mid to late June period which lines up with the CCKW and MJO unless we get some extratropical to tropical transition

By the way a lot of very active seasons didn’t get going until late June and 2004 didn’t really start until the first of August

I could just imagine the season cancel post today if we had a first half like 2004 post like these

It’s late July and nothing has formed
Cancel the season, no June or July systems
This season is boring
The Atlantic is void of convection

And we know that is one of the most active seasons on record in terms of ACE

Hold on, people are talking about season cancel in mid-May lol?

Nope, this is what would happen if a 2004 like season happens but I do believe there will be no pre season systems like unlike the last several years but do believe we have a mid June tropical cyclone with the first hurricane happening in July but might only have 2 or 3 systems before mid August and then a big explosion of activity through October

[Category5Kaiju]

It's been like this for many runs in a row....but I have a feeling that if this verifies, then we're really going to need to look out.

[Pas_Bon]

https://i.imgur.com/bOBZNm0.png

It's been like this for many runs in a row....but I have a feeling that if this verifies, then we're really going to need to look out.

I mean.....it's almost as if someone running the show is putting everything in place for it to be a doozie of a season.
The low shear environments forecasted match up almost exactly with the regions showing all highly favorable parameters for cyclogenesis and rapid intensification of said cyclones.

At this point, I'm halfway expecting Ashton Kutcher to pop his head up around Cuba to remind us that we are being Punk'd.