Area in the Central Subtropical Atlantic: (Is Invest 93L)

[tolakram]

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or
so along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some gradual tropical or subtropical development over the next
several days while the system drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.



Might develop within 72 hours IMO.

[Iceresistance]

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or
so along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some gradual tropical or subtropical development over the next
several days while the system drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/AOI-in-Northern-Subtropical-Atlantic.png

(Yes, I spelled the area wrong )

[tolakram]

Beat ya by 3 minutes.

[aspen]

There’s a decent chance this develops quick enough to become Danielle before 91L. Some of the models — even including the Euro — make this quite a respectable high-latitude storm, maybe even the first hurricane of the year. Just another weird aspect of this hurricane season.

[ElectricStorm]

There’s a decent chance this develops quick enough to become Danielle before 91L. Some of the models — even including the Euro — make this quite a respectable high-latitude storm, maybe even the first hurricane of the year. Just another weird aspect of this hurricane season.

Yeah I agree. Would not be surprised to see this become Danielle at all

[BobHarlem]

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15064&y=3992&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=1&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Iceresistance]

Beat ya by 3 minutes.

Oh I was so close!

But either way, this system could take the opportunity of the ridiculously warm subtropics.

[Hurricaneman]

I wonder if this is ex-92L or something that spawned from the front and energy from 92L

[Landy]

Latest GFS is pretty bullish with this thing. 983mb at T114.

[ElectricStorm]

Code orange

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or
so along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical or
subtropical depression could form later this week while the
system drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[AJC3]

I wonder if this is ex-92L or something that spawned from the front and energy from 92L

It's pretty clear from the CIMSS 5-day CIMSS loop of H85 vorticity that 92L was a smaller disturbance that developed farther SE a couple days ago.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _loop.html (time sensitive).

92L was tagged as an Invest when it was a few hundred miles due east of Bermuda. Another interesting feature is another large LL vort center about 10 degrees west of the AOI just east of 50W which is being highlighted in the current TWO. You can also pretty clearly see that in the satellite loop that Mark posted a link to above (a mostly naked swirl early this morning).

Here are a couple static images that shows all 3 areas...

[Europa non è lontana]

00z GFS has a TS by +54, hitting peak intensity at 978 mb just north of Corvo in the Açores at +168, and dissipation north of Madeira at +324. 00z ICON has formation at +90 and transition by +138. 00z ECWMF has TS by +48, peak intensity north of Terceira at +180, also at 978 mb, and transition in the Bay of Biscay (!!) at +222. I'm going to discard the ACCESS-G out of hand as it shows a 943mb tropical cyclone at around 47 degrees north. Canadian has a TS at +57, transitions by +180. Overall, models seem to be pretty convinced of this system's development, at least in this run, although the track and intensity differ very significantly based on the model.

Euro after +180 here is very unique, although obviously it's just one model run and at a date far enough out where there is very low confidence:

[aspen]

Up to 60/70 on the 8am TWO. We should get Invest 93L or 94L out of this soon; it depends if they want to tag the Cape Verde wave as an invest too.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93L is up