Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[Blown Away]

MH getting yanked from Bahamas latitude to the NE and then ENE under @30N in Aug/Sept. Obviously it can happen, just usually not during Aug early Sept. JMHO

[SFLcane]

Real curious to see what the ecmwf does tonight.

[cycloneye]

20/50.

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become a little better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be generally favorable for additional gradual development over the
next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[ouragans]

20/50.

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become a little better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be generally favorable for additional gradual development over the
next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

It should be an invest soon

[SouthFLTropics]

Real curious to see what the ecmwf does tonight.

Based on what we are seeing from the 12z run as well as the ensembles, I'd guess that it will show another recurve. With that said, I think it is a close call between getting trapped and getting lifted out. Definitely by no means written in stone. How often have we seen 216 and 240 hour forecasts pan out exactly as it is shows. Rarely, if ever. I don't feel very comfortable with it that close on a 9 and 10 day forecast. I'd rather have it showing a direct hit because it is more likely than not going to change. Forecasting a hit or miss at 9 or 10 days is fools gold and strictly for entertainment only. If the trend continues and we see that at 5 days out, then that is something more reliable.

[otowntiger]

Real curious to see what the ecmwf does tonight.

Not sure why it wouldn’t still show a sharp recurve.

[SFLcane]

Real curious to see what the ecmwf does tonight.

Not sure why it wouldn’t still show a sharp recurve.

Well it’s 8-9 days out from conus so lots can and will change. For all we know this could recurve before 70w and bother no one.

[InfernoFlameCat]

8 days ago and this system was just beginning to be hinted at. 10 days ago the Atlantic was dead, or so some thought. Ten days from now? No clue. But this is the first potential powerhouse. Also, convection is forming near the center of the system. It is more organized than any convection from this area yet. We will see what it does.

[Kingarabian]

Can't trust modeled steering 4 days out much less 10 days. We won't know where it's going for sure until about late next week.

[Iceresistance]

Joe B is thinking that this would be a Bahamas and SE USA threat. (#4)

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563543897800085504

[Nimbus]

Joe B is thinking that this would be a Bahamas and SE USA threat. (#4)

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563543897800085504?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Which is probably why the NHC is holding off on declaring an invest until some of the randomness works itself out of the models. North of the islands with only a *potential* trough preventing a major landfall disaster they can't waffle around and entertain all the conflicting 5 and 10% scenarios. Probably a trough.

[AutoPenalti]

Coming back to reality and realizing all models showed a recurve including the Euro during the Irma period, at around this longitude as well.

[Blown Away]

NHC 8pm @14N/42W, little eddy spinning @10.5N/44W.

Convection has waned.

[SouthFLTropics]

Coming back to reality and realizing all models showed a recurve including the Euro during the Irma period, at around this longitude as well.

Just an example of what you just said... Euro 00z from 9/1/2017 for Irma. We all know how that turned out. This looks very familiar to what we are seeing currently.

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/pdkwkRc9/54658299.gif [/url]

NHC 8pm @14N/42W, little eddy spinning @10.5N/44W.

Convection has waned.

Yea, right now seems to be on life support battling dry air.

[SFLcane]

Coming back to reality and realizing all models showed a recurve including the Euro during the Irma period, at around this longitude as well.

Just an example of what you just said... Euro 00z from 9/1/2017 for Irma. We all know how that turned out.

https://i.imgur.com/gGeANpG.gif

This! Absolutely remember this and this is prime time for something like that to happen. Not saying it will.

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/pdkwkRc9/54658299.gif [/url]

NHC 8pm @14N/42W, little eddy spinning @10.5N/44W.

Convection has waned.

Yea, right now seems to be on life support battling dry air.

The SAL has gotten into it.

[cycloneye]

Invest 91L is up