Strong convection SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

[AtlanticWind]

There is quite of blowup of convection near 10 north south of Cabo Verde
It is not associated with a wave maybe with the ITCZ.

Wondering if this could persist

[AtlanticWind]

Still firing, I always watch for these things in the MDR .

[skyline385]

Loop of the wave below CV islands

[ChrisH-UK]

I think that's the first of the MDR storms that are forecasted forming up.

[tiger_deF]

Suprised this post hasn't gotten more traction, as of right now this AOI has the most convection of anything I've seen in the region this season.

[LarryWx]

Suprised this post hasn't gotten more traction, as of right now this AOI has the most convection of anything I've seen in the region this season.

It has the most convection of anything in the E MDR since at least the precursor to Bonnie a full 2 months ago! Also, it is quite a bit south of SAL due to its further south location vs recent areas in the E MDR:

[AutoPenalti]

a good chonky wave that will likely struggle to consolidate with its massive chonkiness.

[Iceresistance]

This could merge with the AOI TW over Africa, and if they do indeed merge, we could have a very large, broad system that could become a TC later down the road.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/35809170.gif

[InfernoFlameCat]

The wave has no low level of anything really. I suspect this will get drawn into the wave behind it. It does have some good convection but its very disorganized.

[Hurricaneman]

I’ll say this, this looks like it’s trying to develop and bears watching in the longer range I believe

[ScottNAtlanta]

The wave has no low level of anything really. I suspect this will get drawn into the wave behind it. It does have some good convection but its very disorganized.

Today it is showing some vorticity at 925 and 850mb, just not any higher (which quite the opposite of everything else this season)

[ScottNAtlanta]

This could merge with the AOI TW over Africa, and if they do indeed merge, we could have a very large, broad system that could become a TC later down the road.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/35809170.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/35809170.gif

The satellite views in the Eastern Atlantic can be deceiving due to the position of the satellite and the curvature of the Earth. They are farther apart than they look.

[aspen]

This could merge with the AOI TW over Africa, and if they do indeed merge, we could have a very large, broad system that could become a TC later down the road.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/35809170.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/35809170.gif

The satellite views in the Eastern Atlantic can be deceiving due to the position of the satellite and the curvature of the Earth. They are farther apart than they look.

The GFS did show them merging for several runs, though. The elongated, further west disturbance became the maximum vorticity center and rotated within the envelope of the incoming wave, first being dragged north and then returning to below 15N before continuing westward and eventually developing. The GFS hasn’t shown this for days, but since the originally forecast setup is here, maybe something similar will happen.

[cycloneye]

This TWD discussion explains the convective area.

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis just offshore
Africa along 18W from 05N to 21N moving westward at 10 kt. The
surrounding environment of this wave has moistened up since 24
hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 10N to 14N between 18W-22W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 08N to 11N between 14W-22W. Convective activity preceding
this wave consists of a large cluster numerous moderate to strong
convection from 06N to 13N between 26W-32W, and of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from 04N to 08N between
32W-38W. This activity has been rather persistent, and appears to
be a piece of energy that had detached from the wave when it was
inland Africa yesterday. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development of this system later this week, or during
the weekend as it continues on westward.

[AJC3]

Since all the model guidance shows this as part of the larger envelope of vorticity/convection which includes the wave behind it, I think we're at the point where we should lock this thread, and keep the discussion from here on out in that thread.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122896