Convection in the NW Caribbean

[N2FSU]

This is the area the GFS has been inconsistent with development originating from
and moving to the northern Gulf coast next weekend. Convection is really firing this morning. Maybe something to watch?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BobHarlem]

the CMC/Canadian has it going on a similar trek as 99L/PTC4, GFS moves it more north to MS/AL (But very weak). Too soon to really tell.

[SoupBone]

So we finally have an actual area to focus on.

[Teban54]

Wait... You're telling me this isn't a phantom vort GFS spun up out of thin air, after all?

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS has this as a weak area coming into Pensacola Midday Sunday, CMC has it going into Galveston a week from Monday also not really developed. (Which is a very large shift north/right from 0z cmc)

[N2FSU]

GFS shows increased vorticity but nothing very organized.




CMC




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BobHarlem]

Not much on satellite at the moment, but the 0z CMC shows a weak vorticity center going into Brownsville on Monday. 6z gfs shows it really weakly going in around Corpus, but the GEFS ensembles have a few members that are stronger toward LA/MS. No real strong support for it, but it's there.

[SoupBone]

Not much on satellite at the moment, but the 0z CMC shows a weak vorticity center going into Brownsville from in Monday. 6z gfs shows it really weakly going in around Corpus, but the GEFS ensembles have a few members that are stronger toward LA/MS. No real strong support for it, but it's there.

This is probably a reasonable solution. It's still pretty unorganized and moving pretty fast too.

[ChrisH-UK]

The convection is near the coast of Panama, been keeping my eye on it today. Now in terms of the models nine times out of ten anything which forms in the models in that south west corner ends up moving further west in each run and ends up in the Pacific.

[SoupBone]

The convection is near the coast of Panama, been keeping my eye on it today. Now in terms of the models nine times out of ten anything which forms in the models in that south west corner ends up moving further west in each run and ends up in the Pacific.

https://imgur.com/eNyQZZQ

Yeah a 99L type of path doesn't seem unreasonable considering where this is forming.

[Nimbus]

There was an upper level low pulling the last system up out of there but upper level winds are blowing southwest over the Florida keys currently.

[SoupBone]

Are we going to get an invest for this?

[ChrisH-UK]

The convection looks to have gone. There is a now convection but that looks like it will interactive with a tropical wave in the Caribbean to become a storm later on.

[BobHarlem]

FWIW this satellte shows the area that was being shown on the models from Panama late last week. No current support from CMC/GFS really now, though.

[Sanibel]

This was upper-influenced...Bad call on my behalf...