Convection continuing to increase around 97L SW of PR ...

[Stormsfury]

The low pressure (located SW of PR/SE of Hispanola) area has begun to initiate some new convection right along the eastern side of it (around 17.5º, 68.5ºW) - However, the overall area is still broad and appears to have multiple swirls within a broad scale baroclinicly driven environment ... we still have westerly shear (divergent enhancement of some of the thunderstorm activity east of the LLS). Furthermore, the location of the LLS, Hispanola is interfering with the circulation of this system which is unable to close and tighten off due to the interaction of the mountains/island itself ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Alright ... now let's get to some specifics on the future ...

The 00z CMC was very strange with it splitting the system in two this morning with quite identifiable entities ... however, the 12z CMC to solidly keep this more one low dominant (main vorticity moves NNE to NE away from the islands ...) ... but does NOT get pulled strongly into the frontal system, but instead begins to get driven almost EASTERLY staying an identifiable system through 72 hours, whereas the GFS 12z does pull the system rapidly NE as it's caught within the strong frontal trough associated with the current system producing severe weather in the Midwest and expected to cause quite a drop in temperatures across the NE/MA/SE States ...

12z CMC and GFS differences in vorticity ...
12z GFS
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

12z CMC
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

WOW!!!!!!!! Just looked at the 12z GFDL and it is QUITE INTERESTING!! The GFDL does not focus on the current low but just off to the NE RAPIDLY spins up (what I believe is the current MLC ... and IMHO, the one to watch) and briefly becomes a small and compact hurricane! zipping NE while the current LLS splits off and is left behind and does a clockwise loop ...

12z GFDL
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

12z GFDL 950mb Vort.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

The UKMET continues to have a hard time reading this system ... even more so than the other globals...but is similar to the 12z CMC and GFDL ...

The 12z NGP (NOGAPS) is similar in regards to the 12z GFS racing the system (as a tropical storm briefly) before being absorbed into the larger scale extratropical system ...

More on the ensembles and the conclusion to this post to follow shortly ... (PC Problems ... gotta reboot)

SF

[Stormsfury]

The CMC ens. members (run at 00z) do NOT support the operational 00z CMC run of this morning ... with most of the ens. members taking a more consolidated system (average mean) rapidly off to the NE away from the islands and developing somewhat .. before a merger with the extratropical low in the N. ATL ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

The NOGAPS ensemble means also support an out to sea NE as well ... and so does the GFS Ensemble Means.

What I expect in the new few days ...

I expect a slow consolidation of the system once 97L gets north of the Islands slowly ... as the system begins to take shape north of the islands, the upper influences begin to take hold and should serve to take the system off to the NE (as shown by MOST of the globals and the ensemble members I've viewed)... there looks like there will be a new feature closer to the suspected MLC area from yesterday and today while the broad large scale low finally consolidates down ... with a residual piece of energy left behind BUT after redevelopment has taken shape, there won't be anything left for the residual energy to latch on to as the moisture is swept out.

[Stormsfury]

EURO also now picking up on the system ... as a 1011 mb low north of PR shunted NEward ...BUT the trough leaves the system behind, doing a clockwise loop and moving back around towards the west before shearing out and being redrawn northward towards the end of the 7 day period ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/EUROLoop.html

[rainstorm]

it will have a tortured existence