Additional model agreement on carribean system

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Additional model agreement on carribean system

#1 Postby Vortex » Fri Nov 07, 2003 9:04 pm

I'm beginning to grow more confident that we may very well have one more storm. The 18z GFS is now showing a closed low near PR in 4-5 days, similar to CMC. Either way PR looks to get some nasty weather mid-week. Also, with strong ridging to the north this system may very well make it into the bahamas at least. Cycloeye keep an eye on this one is has PR written all over it. Here's a link on the Gfs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132l.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

Re: Additional model agreement on carribean system

#2 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Nov 07, 2003 9:14 pm

Vortex wrote:I'm beginning to grow more confident that we may very well have one more storm. The 18z GFS is now showing a closed low near PR in 4-5 days, similar to CMC. Either way PR looks to get some nasty weather mid-week. Also, with strong ridging to the north this system may very well make it into the bahamas at least. Cycloeye keep an eye on this one is has PR written all over it. Here's a link on the Gfs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132l.gif


LOL ... we might as well put our two threads together as one ... the 18z NOGAPS is also slowly coming on board as well ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=18452
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

12z Nogaps also indicates closed

#3 Postby Vortex » Fri Nov 07, 2003 9:15 pm

low Just S of PR in 5 days.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=120
0 likes   
Top
rainstorm

#4 Postby rainstorm » Fri Nov 07, 2003 9:20 pm

VERY SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormchazer

#5 Postby stormchazer » Fri Nov 07, 2003 10:10 pm

Tropics still want to make a statement.
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146119
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Additional model agreement on carribean system

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 08, 2003 7:01 am

Vortex wrote:I'm beginning to grow more confident that we may very well have one more storm. The 18z GFS is now showing a closed low near PR in 4-5 days, similar to CMC. Either way PR looks to get some nasty weather mid-week. Also, with strong ridging to the north this system may very well make it into the bahamas at least. Cycloeye keep an eye on this one is has PR written all over it. Here's a link on the Gfs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132l.gif


Vortex let's see if all of what some models ae showing verifies to see a trend towards a low near Puerto Rico. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Josephine96

#7 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Nov 08, 2003 8:29 am

That'd be interesting. But with all the fronts coming this time of year. I'd say it'd either end up being a fish or a Carolina's threat. Though if it were to get into the Gulf than that's different.

I wanna see 1 more even though that would take me off the predictions by 1 lol

14/8/3 :)
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 36 guests