Surface Trough Offshore the SE U.S Coast (Is Invest 90L)

[Shell Mound]

I personally think this will become yet another “unexpected” short-lived TS, like Danny. The EPS has trended toward longer wavelengths and reduced VWS by day three, with strong low-level convergence beneath a “ridge-bridge.” This, along with the decaying frontal boundary, is a classic late-July setup for TCG just off the Southeastern U.S. The subtropics will likely continue to exceed expectations, given long-range modelling, so I would anticipate continued development in the subtropics, particularly over the Gulf Stream.

[GCANE]

Nice blowup of shear-induced convection in the Bahamas feeding off 5000 CAPE air.
Latest ICON showing some weak development with track back to Savannah.

[aspen]

The ICON run gives this about 2 days over water as a weak TC before making landfall in Georgia midday Monday. Since the disturbance will be over some pretty warm waters, we’ll need to watch out of a phase of RI that could elevate this from a weak TS to either a strong storm or a weak hurricane. OuterBanker mentioned the rapid and unexpected intensification of Chris ‘18 into a Cat 2 hurricane while over the Gulf Stream, and while I highly doubt this disturbance has such a potential, it is proof that sudden and relatively strong coastal spin-ups can happen under the right conditions.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure is located just offshore of the
southeastern United States coastline. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased this morning, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for some additional development during
the next couple of days while the system drifts offshore of
the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

[xironman]

Lots of lightning.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The ICON run gives this about 2 days over water as a weak TC before making landfall in Georgia midday Monday. Since the disturbance will be over some pretty warm waters, we’ll need to watch out of a phase of RI that could elevate this from a weak TS to either a strong storm or a weak hurricane. OuterBanker mentioned the rapid and unexpected intensification of Chris ‘18 into a Cat 2 hurricane while over the Gulf Stream, and while I highly doubt this disturbance has such a potential, it is proof that sudden and relatively strong coastal spin-ups can happen under the right conditions.

that would be the 4th tc that has passed through GA this year if that verifies.

[NDG]

20-25 knot NW shear over it. But we've seen the gulf stream do its magic with systems before even with so much shear.

[Shell Mound]

Lots of lightening.

https://i.imgur.com/SsuvU9T.gif

This will almost certainly be an INVEST in a day.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Starting to get 'the look'. I agree with others I think we get at least a short lived weak system out of this. Shear will keep a cap on strength at least for the time being. This is one of those types of storms that models often don't pick up on until it's already forming. ICON may be onto something lets see if the others will sniff something out later today.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90L is up

[cycloneye]

Lots of lightning.

https://i.imgur.com/SsuvU9T.gif

This will almost certainly be an INVEST in a day.

What about right now?