Last 3 months SST's and Anomalies ... El Niño watch ...

[Stormsfury]

SST anomalies of the coast of South America have risen dramatically in the last month or so ... This coincided with a strong plunging of the SOI values. Now the SOI was swung WAY positive with a dramatic rise of the SOI indecies (on Oct 31st - SOI values at 23.00 and a 51.4 point RISE in the SOI index in just 10 days). Part of the dramatic fall and rise came across with the NEG MJO (and the numerous WPAC tropical systems)....

Now with the dramatic rise in the SOI values, strong trade winds have reestablished for the time being. Overall the SOI trend for the last 30 days and 90 days have been slightly below zero (very much neutral) and the October numbers are set to be released on Monday (though the average looks like -2.87. (As well as the QBO indecies, but that's another thread).

Last ten days ..

20-Oct-2003 1012.30 1011.55 -13.80 -3.03 -1.04
21-Oct-2003 1009.70 1011.40 -29.60 -3.37 -1.30
22-Oct-2003 1010.48 1011.15 -22.90 -3.84 -1.56
23-Oct-2003 1010.90 1011.15 -20.20 -4.34 -1.86
24-Oct-2003 1011.83 1011.25 -14.90 -4.79 -2.11
25-Oct-2003 1011.59 1010.20 -9.60 -5.01 -2.22
26-Oct-2003 1011.45 1010.65 -13.40 -5.38 -2.30
27-Oct-2003 1013.06 1010.95 -5.00 -5.29 -2.31
28-Oct-2003 1013.43 1012.20 -10.70 -5.20 -2.42
29-Oct-2003 1012.99 1009.60 3.20 -4.70 -2.39
30-Oct-2003 1012.89 1006.85 20.30 -3.74 -2.00
31-Oct-2003 1013.31 1006.85 23.00 -2.83 -1.51

Full 30 day Indicies

[Stormsfury]

Basically what this means with the wild swing in the SOI index in the last 10 days and the ensemble members hinting at a pattern change (NEG NAO) ... some strong amplification may be getting ready to take place ...

(Not exactly tropics related)

SF

[AussieMark]

Interesting read

[Stormsfury]

Here's a more detailed look of the forecasted SST anomalies for the Next 10 months ...