Possible development SE of Bermuda (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over
the weekend several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Some slow
development will be possible thereafter into early next week
while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing
about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

I’m surprised it took so long for this to be on the TWO. Models were showing it as early as Sunday.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS doesn't like this system and doesn't develop it much at all.

[aspen]

0z GFS doesn't like this system and doesn't develop it much at all.

The 06z GFS changed its mind and now likes this, and the GFS-Para likes it even more; it gets it to hurricane intensity next week.

The GFS, GFS-Para, ECMWF, CMC, ICON, and EPS all show development now, with some bringing it near or to hurricane intensity. This could be a decently strong wandering system with the potential for at least 10 ACE.

[aspen]

12z GFS has TD27 or TS Epsilon on Saturday.

[SconnieCane]

Question: Do we know for sure that this system is going to be a subtropical-type cyclone? Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support a traditional tropical cyclone. Does the thread title refer more to the location of development than the type?

[AJC3]

Question: Do we know for sure that this system is going to be a subtropical-type cyclone? Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support a traditional tropical cyclone. Does the thread title refer more to the location of development than the type?

The initial development will be baroclinic (non-tropical). The surface low forms undeneath a cold core 500MB low. The surface reflection, whether a trough or low then retrogrades (to at least some extent) westward beneath a strong 500MB ridge to its north. Because of the cold temperatures aloft, it should generate a decent amount of convection, which, in turn, would warm the core. The system will likely try and acquire tropical characteristics during its life process.

Bottom line is that will initially be a non-tropical low, which will try to transition to tropical cyclone, possibly spending some time as a subtropical cyclone during the transition. It all depends upon its evolution and when/if it becomes classied by NHC.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over
the next couple of days several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. Additional slow development will be possible thereafter
into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then
westward, passing about between Bermuda and the northern Lesser
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Good chance this may become a hurricane if the GFS/CMC were to be believed.

[underthwx]

30 per cent at 8 pm

[cycloneye]

A broad non-tropical low pressure system is forming about 600 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda. Some gradual tropical or subtropical
development of this system is possible through the middle of next
week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to the
southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[aspen]

Good chance this may become a hurricane if the GFS/CMC were to be believed.

Hurricane Epsilon 2.0: The Sequel

[ClarCari]

Good chance this may become a hurricane if the GFS/CMC were to be believed.

Hurricane Epsilon 2.0: The Sequel

hehe Got me thinking how so far all of the Greek storms this year are inverted compared to their 2005 counterparts. Alpha was subtropical instead of tropical, Beta did not become a Hurricane this time, Gamma very likely was this time and Delta forsure was.

[TheStormExpert]

So if future-Epsilon becomes a hurricane then much probably won’t become of future-Zeta?

[CrazyC83]

So if future-Epsilon becomes a hurricane then much probably won’t become of future-Zeta?

No. Too far apart - this is one of those subtropical development systems. Think of Sandy and Tony in 2012 (although this would be the first to develop).

[HurricaneEnzo]

Starting to get 'the look' like it will try to do something.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a broad non-tropical low pressure
system located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has
become a little better organized this morning. Additional gradual
tropical or subtropical development of this system is possible
through the middle of next week while the low meanders over the
central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[plasticup]

Two tropical threats the week of Halloween. 2020 sure is something.

[cycloneye]

Invest 94L is up