11:30 TWO

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ameriwx2003
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11:30 TWO

#1 Postby ameriwx2003 » Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:19 am

http://www.hwn.org/hawt20us.htm
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:25 am

So after all it may be old Nicholas the name.
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#3 Postby stormchazer » Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:58 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST THU OCT 30 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-ORGANIZED NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS...IS CENTERED ABOUT
215 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RE-DEVELOPED AND INCREASED AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THIS MORNING.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT
BEST...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT INITIALLY MOVES
TO THE SOUTH AND THEN GRADUALLY TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WARMER
WATER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


Does not say that...just the remants of old Nick. We shall see how this plays out. Season is definately not over yet.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

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#4 Postby JCT777 » Thu Oct 30, 2003 12:03 pm

I wonder if those who posted in the past few weeks that "the Atlantic tropical season is over" have changed their minds. I think this will become at least a tropical storm, possibly a hurricane.
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Steve H.
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Thu Oct 30, 2003 12:23 pm

12Z CMC now splits this into 3 things Thing 1 goes wesr=t; thing 2 stays put; Thing 3 goes east/NE :eek: Not terrific faith in CMC.
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mitchell
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#6 Postby mitchell » Thu Oct 30, 2003 12:27 pm

The bulletin doesn't really sound very bullish on development to me.
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#7 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Oct 30, 2003 12:31 pm

It says it could develop. Thats basically what it says
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#8 Postby ameriwx2003 » Thu Oct 30, 2003 12:38 pm

Mitchell... My original post was just titled 11:30 TWO.. For some reason a moderator decided they needed to spice up what I said:):):):):) and change the link to the TWO:):)
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 30, 2003 2:03 pm

ameriwx2003 I edited it to it's original message. :)
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#10 Postby mitchell » Thu Oct 30, 2003 3:49 pm

obviously not a big deal....In fact I hope it does develop. We are already seeing a nice swell in Delaware from this system
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#11 Postby stormchazer » Thu Oct 30, 2003 4:42 pm

mitchell wrote:obviously not a big deal....In fact I hope it does develop. We are already seeing a nice swell in Delaware from this system



I apologize if we here on the S. Atl and Gulf Coast don't share in your enthusiasm. :x :lol:
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
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